Unintended Consequences of International Partner Pressure on Somaliland

While engagement with international partners is crucial for Somaliland’s development and pursuit of recognition, it is essential to strike a balance that respects the country’s sovereignty and democratic processes

Somaliland faced significant challenges in its quest for international recognition since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991. While Somaliland has established a relatively stable democratic system and functioning government, it continues to face pressure from international partners seeking to influence its policies and decisions.

It is becoming increasingly burdensome to the general public. People tend to go along with external pressure forcing a government to correct excesses or withdraw harmful bills and policies. Influencing the government and political parties to abide by the rules and not deviate from the democratic path is also palatable to most. But when such pressure impacts the lives, security, and living standards of the ordinary man on the street in more ways than one, that is when resentment sets in and people sway towards government lines even if it is still wrong in more ways than one.

This external pressure, often exerted by more powerful nations and organizations, is proving to have multi-faceted adverse effects on Somaliland’s development and sovereignty, and people are beginning to take notice.

One of the most concerning impacts of undue international pressure is its potential to undermine Somaliland’s democratic processes. When external actors attempt to force their will on Somaliland’s government, it can lead to decisions that may not align with the wishes of the Somaliland people. This interference can erode public trust in democratic institutions and weaken the legitimacy of elected officials.

Somaliland’s unrecognized status makes it particularly vulnerable to economic pressure from international partners. Threats to withhold aid or impose sanctions can force Somaliland’s government to make concessions that may not be in the best interest of its citizens. This economic leverage can lead to policies that prioritize external demands over local needs and long-term development goals.

External pressure on Somaliland threatens its de facto sovereignty and ability to make independent decisions. By yielding to the demands of more powerful international actors, Somaliland risks losing control over key aspects of its governance and foreign policy. This can hinder the country’s efforts to assert its independence and gain international recognition.

When international partners push Somaliland to take certain positions or actions, it can affect decisions that are the best for the country both in the short term and in the long term but not in the interests of external actors. The geostrategic location of Somaliland and its command of both inland Africa and its outlet to the Red Sea makes it specifically of avid interest to all the forces and opposing blocs of today’s world as they vy for privileged positions in the Horn of Africa.  It can also make it more difficult for Somaliland to navigate its complex relationships with other nations in the Horn of Africa.

Constant pressure from international partners can divert Somaliland’s government resources and attention away from crucial state-building efforts. Instead of focusing on strengthening institutions and addressing domestic challenges, officials may be preoccupied with managing external demands and expectations. This can slow the development of effective governance structures and hinder progress towards Somaliland’s long-term goals.

External pressure often comes with attempts to impose foreign values or practices that may not align with Somaliland’s cultural norms and social fabric. This can lead to tensions within society and resistance to reforms that are perceived as externally driven rather than locally initiated.

Security

International partners forced Somaliland to abandon parts of its country to a host of militias among which were reported extremists donning the tribal garb.

To highlight but one consequence of undue meddling in a country’s intricate, internal affairs, the situation in Las Anod – past and present – must be of greater concern to the international community than holding elections today, tomorrow, or the day after in Somaliland as much it is of importance to us all.

The withdrawal from Las Anod, perceived as a result of international pressure, cnegatively impacts Somaliland’s claims to statehood in several ways:

• It js seen as a sign of weakness or inability to maintain control over its claimed territory.
• It undermines Somaliland’s narrative of being a stable and effective de facto state.
• It emboldens other regions within Somaliland to challenge the central government’s authority.
• Creates a power vacuum in the Las Anod area, potentially leading to increased instability or conflict.
• Possible increase in clan-based tensions or violence in the disputed regions.
• Potential for increased activity by extremist groups like Al-Shabaab in areas of reduced government control.
• Lends heart to undisciplined militias and their leaders most of whose lie in vengeance and looting, to push their advantage to start armed engagements elsewhere in the area such as Erigavo, especially at a time the Khatumo leaders are patted on the back by the likes of Djibouti, Somalia, and China.
• Increases support for opposition groups or dissenting clans within Somaliland.
• Intensified diplomatic efforts to isolate Somaliland internationally.
• Exploits internal divisions or grievances to weaken Somaliland’s cohesion.
• Increases attempts to disrupt Somaliland’s economic development projects or foreign investments.

What is perhaps more perplexing to many observers is the apparent silence or muted response of international partners regarding several critical issues in the Sool region including, but not limited to, the growing threat that had been developing in the area for some time, the invasion into Somaliland by Somalia troops, led by Somalia generals,  the involvement of troops trained by these international partners and Turkey fighting alongside the rebels they had incited, and the presence of various jihadist elements and units that have been identified in the area.

These groups appear to have integrated themselves into the local population, potentially with the intention of transforming the region into a breeding ground for terrorism. There are concerns that this area could become a safe haven for extremists, from which they could plan and launch operations throughout the Horn of Africa and East Africa.

The lack of significant international response to these developments is particularly troubling given the potential regional security implications. This situation raises questions about the consistency and effectiveness of international engagement in the region, especially concerning counter-terrorism efforts and regional stability.

Somalia and Djibouti

Perceived weakening of Somaliland’s position indeed encouraged Somalia and Djibouti to take more assertive stances. Somalia, for instance, intensified efforts to reclaim control over Somaliland, viewing the Las Anod situation as an opportunity; increased diplomatic pressure against Somaliland’s recognition efforts; and is focusing on the disruption of other areas and regions sowing dissension and anarchy.

Djibouti, on the other hand, has already started training armed rebels to be infiltrated back into the Awdal region in an attempt to replicate Somalia’s successful exploitation of the unrest it initiated, fueled, and militarily supported in the Sool region.

Djibouti sees this open aggression against Somaliland as an opportunity to strengthen its position as the primary port and economic hub in the region. The World Bank CPP Index of 2023 placed Berbera port far above both Djibouti and Mogadishu ports. Djibouti was visibly scared by the rating and has a vested interest in preventing Berbera from taking away a substantial volume of the Ethiopian import/Export portfolio.

Somalia and Djibouti are determined not to see the January MOU between Somaliland and Federal Ethiopia go through. The agreement granted landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through Somaliland in return for diplomatic recognition to revive the internationally recognized statehood of Somaliland in 1960. Somaliland, at the time, chose, to be the first of the five Somali-inhabited territories that the 5-pointed star on the blue flag represented to join the second, Somalia, for NFD (Kenya), Ogadenia & Reserve Area (Ethiopia), and Djibouti (France), to join them later.

Developing Strategies

Somaliland’s government and civil society must work together to resist undue external pressure and prioritize the needs and aspirations of its citizens. International actors, in turn, should seek to support Somaliland’s stability and progress through constructive dialogue and partnership, rather than coercive measures that undermine the country’s autonomy and democratic foundations.

Somaliland needs to develop strategies fast to effectively communicate its position and garner more international support on its terms. These may include – but not confined to the insights below.

1. Develop a cohesive public diplomacy campaign

• Create a clear, consistent narrative highlighting Somaliland’s democratic achievements, stability, and strategic importance.
• Utilize social media, international press, and cultural exchanges to share Somaliland’s story.
• Engage diaspora communities to act as informal ambassadors in their host countries.

2. Enhance economic diplomacy

• Showcase Somaliland’s potential for foreign investment, particularly in sectors like energy and ports.
• Pursue bilateral trade agreements with sympathetic nations.
• Highlight Somaliland’s strategic location and potential role in regional economic development.

3. Leverage regional partnerships

• Strengthen ties with neighboring countries and regional bodies like the African Union.
• Emphasize Somaliland’s role in promoting regional stability and combating terrorism.
• Seek observer status in regional organizations where possible.

4. Engage with international civil society

• Build relationships with think tanks, NGOs, and academic institutions.
• Invite international observers to elections to demonstrate democratic credentials.
• Encourage research and publications on Somaliland’s unique situation.

5. Focus on specific policy areas

• Highlight Somaliland’s efforts in areas like counterterrorism, anti-piracy, and migration management.
• Demonstrate commitment to international norms on human rights and good governance.
• Showcase successful development projects and potential for further growth with international support.

6. Pursue targeted diplomatic initiatives

• Establish representative offices in key countries, even without formal diplomatic recognition.
• Engage in track II diplomacy with influential non-state actors.
• Seek opportunities for participation in international forums and conferences.

7. Develop legal and historical arguments

• Articulate clear legal justifications for independence based on international law.
• Commission and promote historical research supporting Somaliland’s distinct identity.
• Engage international legal experts to bolster the case for recognition.

8. Improve domestic governance

• Continue strengthening democratic institutions and processes.
• Address internal challenges transparently to demonstrate good governance.
• Invest in education and infrastructure to showcase development potential.

9. Cultivate media relationships

• Develop relationships with international journalists and media outlets.
• Provide regular briefings and facilitate press visits to Somaliland.
• Respond promptly and transparently to media inquiries.

10. Explore innovative recognition strategies

• Pursue membership in international organizations that don’t require full statehood.
• Investigate the possibility of associated statehood or free association models with supportive countries.

The key is to maintain a consistent, multi-faceted approach that emphasizes Somaliland’s strengths and to address the concerns of the international community in ways that do not undermine the independence or integrity of its people.

International partners must note that.

As Somaliland continues its journey towards international recognition and sustainable development, fostering relationships based on mutual respect and shared interests will be key to navigating the complex dynamics of global politics while preserving its hard-won independence and unique identity.