Mogadishu– Turkey has officially entered into a high-stakes security agreement with Somalia, deploying up to 5,000 SADAT special forces—a private military contractor akin to Russia’s Wagner Group—to secure Mogadishu, repel Al-Shabaab advances, and reinforce President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration.
According to military and diplomatic sources, the Erdogan government has brokered a sweeping deal that includes:
- Government Restructuring: President Hassan Sheikh will dissolve Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s administration and parliament, replacing them with a 25-member Government Council to rule Somalia for the next five years.
- Martial Law & Turkish Deployment: Turkey’s SADAT forces will enforce security in Mogadishu, implement martial law, and push back against Al-Shabaab.
- Crackdown on Opposition: Key political figures resisting the new order face imprisonment or assassination.
- Public Reception: Turkey’s return—reminiscent of its 2011 famine relief efforts—may initially garner local support in Mogadishu.
- Ethiopian Involvement: As part of the Ankara deal, Ethiopia may deploy troops to Jubbaland, further entrenching Turkey’s influence.
- Economic & Military Concessions: Somalia has granted Turkey , the Somalia’s oil rights, resource contracts, and military/naval base access** in exchange for security backing.
Challenges & Potential Escalation
The agreement risks plunging Somalia into deeper conflict, drawing parallels to Siad Barre’s 1969 coup or the chaos of his 1991 fall:
- Al-Shabaab’s Urban Stronghold: The group has 9,000 fighters positioned in and around Mogadishu, with 8,000 more en route, potentially turning the capital into a Fallujah-style battleground.
- Encircling Key Cities: Al-Shabaab has surrounded Baidoa and Jowhar and may seize them in weeks, though Mogadishu could hold out longer due to Turkish and Somali National Army (SNA) presence.
- Proxy War Risks: The Turkey-Somalia alliance could fracture the country further, mirroring Libya or Syria, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE potentially backing resistance factions.
Global Reactions
- United States: Preoccupied with Ukraine and Yemen, the U.S. will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach.
- European Union: Overstretched in Syria, the EU may tacitly support Turkey’s intervention, especially given Erdogan’s role in Ukraine.
- United Kingdom: Likely to align with the EU or delay commitment until Somalia’s political landscape clarifies.
- AU & Donor Fatigue: With the new AU mission (ATMIS successor) unfunded, Western donors may view Turkey’s involvement as a cost-saving alternative.
Long-Term Scenarios
If Turkey’s intervention stabilizes Mogadishu within two months:
- Negotiations: Qatar and Turkey could push Al-Shabaab toward a “Doha 2.0” political settlement, potentially granting the group a role in government.
