By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin, Hargeisa, Somaliland
The Ankara Declaration, brokered by Türkiye between Ethiopia and Somalia, is being hailed as a step toward regional cooperation. However, it is nothing more than a smokescreen that masks Somalia’s chronic instability while sidelining Somaliland, a nation that has proven itself as a beacon of democracy and stability in the Horn of Africa.
Yesterday, Somaliland once again showcased its democratic credentials as the world witnessed a peaceful transfer of power following its one-person-one-vote elections, a rarity not just in Africa but globally. This historic event was observed and praised by international dignitaries, including U.S. and U.K. ambassadors, further cementing Somaliland’s position as a model of stability and governance. In stark contrast, Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was in Ankara insisting on his government’s sovereignty over Somaliland—a claim that has been rejected outright by the people and government of Somaliland.
The Ankara Declaration exposes Somalia’s inability to put its own house in order. For decades, Mogadishu has failed to address its internal disintegration, with Jubaland effectively seceded and Puntland on the brink of breaking away. Somalia’s federal government barely governs beyond the confines of Mogadishu, relying on African Union forces to maintain even this limited control. Yet President Hassan Sheikh persists in his fruitless attempts to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty, a strategy that has yielded nothing but diplomatic failures and further destabilized his own nation.
The declaration itself appears to subtly criticize Somalia’s misguided priorities. Reading between the lines, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s facilitation hints at frustration with Hassan Sheikh’s relentless but unproductive diplomatic campaigns to isolate Somaliland economically, militarily, and diplomatically. Rather than addressing the fundamental issues tearing his country apart, Hassan Sheikh has wasted precious time and resources trying to strangle Somaliland’s existence, ignoring the reality that Somaliland’s sovereignty is non-negotiable and irreversible.
The agreement indirectly suggests that Somalia’s president needs to face the truth: Somaliland’s fate is for Somaliland to decide. Instead of harboring resentment and jealousy toward Somaliland’s success, Hassan Sheikh should focus on rebuilding Somalia by addressing its more immediate challenges. Puntland and Jubaland, which are slipping away from the federal government, deserve his attention far more than Somaliland, which has already charted its own course. A wiser leader would engage Somaliland prudently and acknowledge its right to self-determination rather than continuing to play the “boy who cried hyena” on the international stage.
The crux of the Ankara Declaration—the matter of Ethiopia’s sea access—cannot be separated from Somaliland’s jurisdiction over the Berbera Port. Although the agreement avoids explicitly mentioning the 2016 Memorandum of Understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia, it is clear that the issue at hand requires direct engagement with Somaliland. Any attempts to bypass Somaliland in these discussions are doomed to fail, as they ignore the reality that Somaliland is the sovereign authority over its territory and assets.
By continuing to deny Somaliland’s independence and refusing to engage with it in good faith, Somalia’s leadership further isolates itself diplomatically. The world increasingly recognizes Somaliland’s democratic achievements and stability as a stark contrast to Somalia’s ongoing fragmentation. The Ankara Declaration inadvertently underscores this divide, dealing a deadly blow to Somalia’s claims of sovereignty and exposing its inability to govern effectively.
Somalia’s federal government must accept that Somaliland’s independence is not only a reality but also a success story in a region often marred by conflict and instability. It is time for Somalia to stop fighting a losing battle and start focusing on its internal divisions. Charity, as they say, begins at home. For Hassan Sheikh, this means addressing the grievances of Puntland and Jubaland, negotiating their continued participation in the federal union, and rebuilding Somalia from within.
As Hassan Sheikh returns to Mogadishu, he finds himself back at square one: Somaliland must be dealt with on technical and practical terms, not through coercion or denial of its sovereignty. The Ankara Declaration may have been framed as a diplomatic triumph, but it lays bare the harsh truth—that Somaliland’s independence is undeniable, and Somalia must recalibrate its strategy if it hopes to find stability and legitimacy in the region.
