In light of Somalia’s recent intensification of pressure on Somaliland, including directives to airlines, financial institutions, and trade partners to refrain from using the name “Somaliland” in favor of “Somalia,” the de facto independent state is considering a comprehensive range of retaliatory measures. This move by Somalia is widely interpreted as a misreading of Somaliland’s willingness to engage in dialogue, perceiving it as a sign of weakness rather than a gesture of goodwill.
Diplomatic Offensive
Somaliland is preparing to launch a comprehensive diplomatic campaign in response to Somalia’s renewed aggression. This multi-faceted approach aims to protect Somaliland’s interests and raise international awareness of the situation.
Firstly, Somaliland has decided to suspend all ongoing talks and negotiations with Somalia. This decisive step underscores the seriousness of the situation and Somaliland’s refusal to engage in dialogue under duress.
A key component of this diplomatic offensive is to alert the international community and development partners to Somalia’s misuse of aid and developmental funds. Somaliland intends to demonstrate how these resources are being diverted to undermine Somaliland’s established democracy, security, stability, governance, and trade. This move aims to ensure transparency and accountability in regional aid distribution.
Furthermore, Somaliland plans to apprise the international community of the primary objective behind Somalia’s renewed aggression: to derail Somaliland’s 34-year-long success in governance and state-building. By highlighting this aspect, Somaliland seeks to frame the conflict not as a mere territorial dispute, but as a threat to regional stability and democratic progress.
In light of upcoming elections, Somaliland will enlighten its development partners and the international community about Somalia’s ill-concealed intention to foil these democratic processes. This includes exposing Somalia’s attempts to divert attention to other concerns of its own creation, potentially destabilizing the region.
Somaliland is set to intensify its outreach to international partners, reaffirming its sovereignty and seeking formal recognition from sympathetic countries. This push for recognition is crucial in solidifying Somaliland’s position on the global stage.
Appeals will be made to regional and international organizations such as the African Union, IGAD, EU, and BRICS. Somaliland will urge these bodies to take serious action against Somalia’s naked aggression and to support Somaliland in thwarting and cushioning the intended effects of Somalia’s actions.
Through these concerted diplomatic efforts, Somaliland aims to garner international support, protect its interests, and maintain the stability and progress it has achieved over the past three decades. The success of this diplomatic offensive could significantly influence the trajectory of the conflict and Somaliland’s standing in the international community.
Economic Countermeasures
Somaliland is exploring several options to mitigate the economic impact of Somalia’s actions. These include strengthening economic ties with countries that acknowledge its autonomy, diversifying trade routes and partnerships to reduce dependence on Somalia, and potentially imposing restrictions on Somali businesses operating within its borders. The further development of Berbera port is also under consideration as a means to compete with Mogadishu for regional trade dominance.
Legal and Public Relations Initiatives
Somaliland is gearing up to launch a comprehensive legal and public relations campaign to 
counter Somalia’s claims and reinforce its position on the international stage. On the legal front, Somaliland is preparing to challenge Somalia’s assertions of sovereignty in international courts or through arbitration. This bold move aims to expose the illegitimacy of the unratified 1960 union with Somalia, effectively undermining the legal basis of Somalia’s continued claims over Somaliland. Simultaneously, legal experts are being enlisted to bolster Somaliland’s case for independence, meticulously compiling historical documents, treaties, and legal precedents that support Somaliland’s right to self-determination and recognition as an independent state.
In a proactive stance, Somaliland is also exploring the possibility of seeking injunctions against companies and organizations complying with Somalia’s demands. This legal strategy could extend to multiple jurisdictions, aiming to prevent businesses from acquiescing to Somalia’s pressure to deny Somaliland’s existence. Furthermore, Somaliland is preparing to file human rights appeals with international bodies, highlighting potential violations of Somalilanders’ rights to self-determination and democratic governance that Somalia’s actions represent.
On the public relations front, Somaliland is crafting a multi-faceted approach to increase global awareness of its situation. A comprehensive media strategy is being developed, which includes engaging with international news outlets, organizing press conferences, and facilitating journalist visits to Somaliland. This traditional media outreach will be complemented by a robust digital diplomacy effort, leveraging social media and digital platforms to share Somaliland’s narrative directly with a global audience. The campaign will create compelling content highlighting Somaliland’s democratic achievements, stability, and distinct identity.
Recognizing the power of academic influence, Somaliland plans to engage with international academic institutions and think tanks to produce research and analysis supporting its case for recognition. This academic outreach will be bolstered by cultural diplomacy initiatives, showcasing Somaliland’s unique heritage and contemporary art scene through international exhibitions, performances, and cultural exchanges. These efforts aim to differentiate Somaliland’s identity from that of Somalia and build cultural bridges with the international community.
The Somaliland diaspora will play a crucial role in this campaign, being mobilized to act as ambassadors in their host countries. They will engage with politicians, media, and civil society to advocate for Somaliland’s cause, leveraging their unique position to influence opinion in key international arenas.
To underscore its commitment to good governance, Somaliland will launch transparency initiatives demonstrating its dedication to anti-corruption measures and responsible management of natural resources. This will be coupled with a campaign to showcase Somaliland’s economic potential, strategic location, and investment opportunities, aiming to generate international business interest and potentially create economic pressure for recognition.
Through this interwoven tapestry of legal and public relations strategies, Somaliland aims to mount a formidable challenge to Somalia’s claims, reinforce its own position, and garner international support for its sovereignty and recognition. These cohesive measures are designed to work in concert with diplomatic and economic initiatives, creating a robust and multi-faceted approach to asserting Somaliland’s independence and countering Somalia’s aggressive stance. By addressing both legal and public perception fronts, Somaliland is positioning itself to reshape the narrative around its status and future on the global stage.
Security and Internal Consolidation
Enhanced border security measures and increased military preparedness are being considered to assert territorial control and serve as a deterrent. Internally, efforts to reinforce national identity, strengthen domestic institutions, and invest in infrastructure are being prioritized to further differentiate Somaliland from Somalia and improve self-reliance.
Commercial and Infrastructure Development
Somaliland is encouraging local businesses to rebrand and distance themselves from Somali associations. Plans are underway to develop alternative financial networks and promote Somaliland as a distinct investment destination. Additionally, the establishment of direct air links with friendly nations and the development of independent telecommunication infrastructure are being explored to reduce reliance on Somali-controlled systems.
While these potential measures represent a robust response to Somalia’s aggressive stance, it is important to note that the situation remains complex and sensitive. Any actions taken by Somaliland will need to be carefully calibrated, taking into account regional dynamics and international law. As the situation unfolds, the international community watches closely, recognizing the potential implications for regional stability and the broader Horn of Africa
The Root of the Conflict: A Complex Historical Tapestry
The current tensions between Somaliland and Somalia have deep historical roots, tracing back to the formation of the Somali Republic in 1960. This union, which was never formally ratified, brought together the former British Somaliland Protectorate and Italian Somaliland. From its inception, the merger was fraught with challenges and inequalities that would set the stage for decades of conflict.
Unequal Partnership and Misinterpreted Referendum
The 1961 referendum, often cited as the foundation of the disenchantment with a domineering junior partner – Italian Somalia, was, in fact, a misinterpreted expression of Somaliland’s desires. Contrary to popular belief fed and fueled by Somalians, Somalilanders overwhelmingly voted against the proposed union. This crucial detail has been obscured over time, leading to misconceptions about the legitimacy of the unified state.
Moreover, the new republic’s distribution of power and resources was markedly unequal. Somaliland, despite its strategic location and resources, found itself marginalized in the new political landscape. This imbalance sowed the seeds of discontent growing over the following decades.
Shifting Identities and Broken Promises
The frequent changes to the government’s name and structure were not part of the original, unapproved deal. These alterations, often made unilaterally by the southern-dominated government, further eroded trust and reinforced the sense of betrayal felt by many Somalilanders.
The Siad Barre Regime and the Genocide of the 1980s
The situation deteriorated dramatically under the dictatorship of Siad Barre. In the 1980s, the regime unleashed a campaign of terror against the people of Somaliland, then known as the northern regions of Somalia. This campaign, widely recognized as genocide, involved the systematic destruction of cities, the looting of property, and mass killings of civilians.
The cities of Hargeisa and Burao were particularly hard-hit, with large portions of their infrastructure reduced to rubble by aerial bombardment. The human cost was staggering, with tens of thousands killed and hundreds of thousands displaced. This period of brutality left deep scars on the collective psyche of Somalilanders and solidified their resolve to seek independence.
The Path to De Facto Independence
In the wake of the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, Somaliland declared its independence, reverting to the borders of the former British Somaliland Protectorate. Since then, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent state, establishing its own government, currency, and armed forces. It has held multiple democratic elections and maintained relative stability in a region often characterized by conflict.
Despite these achievements, Somaliland’s quest for international recognition has been an uphill battle. Despite its internal challenges, Somalia has consistently opposed Somaliland’s claims to independence, insisting on the territorial integrity of a unified Somalia.
Regional Power Play and External Manipulation
The conflict between Somaliland and Somalia is further complicated by the strategic maneuvering of regional powers, particularly Turkey, Egypt, and Djibouti. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, and President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti appear to be exploiting the situation, using Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud as a pawn in their own political and strategic chess game. These leaders are leveraging their support for Somalia to protect and advance their respective interests in the Horn of Africa.
In exchange for providing Hassan Sheikh with the military and diplomatic clout he desperately needs on the international front, they are influencing Somalia’s policies and actions towards Somaliland. This support emboldens Somalia’s aggressive stance, as Hassan Sheikh attempts to bring Somaliland to its knees, believing he has the backing of these regional powers. The situation has been further intensified by the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between President Musa Bihi Abdi of Somaliland and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia. This agreement, which grants landlocked Ethiopia access to the sea through Somaliland, has sparked significant concern among the aforementioned regional players. Their opposition to this deal is rooted in the potential shift in regional power dynamics it represents, particularly the prospect of Ethiopia becoming the first country to boldly step forward and diplomatically recognize the Republic of Somaliland as the 55th sovereign state of Africa. Such recognition would effectively reinstate Somaliland’s 1960 pre-union status and could trigger a domino effect of international recognition.
This development has galvanized these regional leaders to intensify their support for Somalia’s claims, seeing the potential recognition of Somaliland as a threat to their strategic interests in the region. Consequently, what should be a bilateral issue between Somaliland and Somalia has transformed into a multi-faceted power struggle involving several nations, each with its own agenda. This complex web of interests not only threatens Somaliland’s hard-won stability and democratic progress but also risks turning the Horn of Africa into a battleground for competing regional ambitions, potentially undermining the entire region’s security and economic development. The MOU with Ethiopia has thus become a pivotal point in this geopolitical chess game, with Somaliland’s potential recognition hanging in the balance amid intense regional maneuvering.
Current Context
The recent aggressive moves by Somalia, including attempts to control Somaliland’s airspace and pressuring international partners to refrain from using the name “Somaliland,” are seen by many as a continuation of the historical pattern of marginalization and denial of Somaliland’s distinct identity and aspirations.
What Somalia appears to have not realized yet is that Somaliland and Somalilanders cannot be subdued or fazed by any amount of pressure. History proves this right.
By Farid Adrash
Independent Analyst
