By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin
History has a way of repeating itself. In 2008, against a storm of opposition from Russia, Serbia, and even some European allies, the United States made a bold and strategic move—it recognized Kosovo’s independence. That decision was not just a moral stand; it was a geopolitical masterstroke. Now, nearly two decades later, the same opportunity has presented itself again—this time in the Horn of Africa.
The question before Washington is clear: Will it recognize Somaliland as it once did Kosovo? Or will it allow history to slip through its fingers, ceding a critical strategic advantage to its adversaries?
The Washington Talks: The Kosovo Domino Effect in Motion
The world is watching as a historic meeting unfolds. On April 4, 2025, the newly elected President of Somaliland, Dr. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi Ciro, will arrive in Washington, leading a high-powered delegation that includes several Ministers from Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Planning, alongside a team of top international lawyers. Their mission? To cement Somaliland’s case for U.S. recognition.
These discussions are not ordinary diplomatic pleasantries. Behind closed doors, Trump’s top Africa advisors, senior State Department officials, and influential members of Congress—who have long urged him to recognize Somaliland—are driving home the geopolitical and military advantages of breaking with the failed “One Somalia” policy. In fact, long before the recent U.S. elections, these very advisors were already shaping Trump’s stance, presenting Somaliland’s recognition as a strategic imperative in countering China’s growing influence in the Red Sea.
For all intents and purposes, this is Kosovo all over again.
Somalia in Panic Mode: Hassan Sheikh’s Desperate Gambit
As the Washington discussions take center stage, one man is in panic mode—Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. He knows exactly what is at stake, and he also knows he is outmatched.
To block Somaliland’s recognition, Hassan Sheikh has reportedly funneled a staggering $600 million—mostly foreign aid meant for Somalia’s poor and starving—into a top-tier U.S. lobbying firm to sabotage Somaliland’s diplomatic efforts. But there’s a problem: money can’t outmaneuver Trump’s transactional playbook.
Trump, the master of the Art of the Deal, has no interest in Somalia’s emotional appeals or in defending a decades-old failed policy. He sees Somaliland as a better deal—a self-reliant, democratic ally that offers tangible strategic and military advantages in the Red Sea. Unlike Somalia, which remains a failed state, Somaliland brings stability, infrastructure, and a valuable security partnership to the table.
For Hassan Sheikh, this realization is devastating. His government’s existence depends on international handouts, and he has wasted those resources in a desperate bid to maintain an illusion of unity that no longer exists.
The Kosovo Parallel: A Case for Bold Recognition
Somaliland and Kosovo are kindred spirits in the struggle for self-determination. Both emerged from the ashes of failed unions—Kosovo from Serbia and Somaliland from Somalia. Both suffered under brutal regimes—Kosovo under Slobodan Milošević and Somaliland under Siad Barre. Both built viable, functioning democracies while their former parent states spiraled into instability.
And yet, both faced (and still face) the same stubborn resistance from the international community—a world order reluctant to redraw the maps, even when reality demands it.
Kosovo’s recognition by the U.S. was not just an act of justice; it was a calculated move to counterbalance Russian influence in the Balkans. The same logic applies to Somaliland today. In an era where China’s presence in Djibouti threatens to tilt the balance of power in the Red Sea, Somaliland offers the U.S. a golden opportunity to plant its flag firmly in one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors.
The Red Sea Chessboard: Somaliland’s Strategic Significance
If Washington’s policymakers are not paying attention to the shifting sands of the Horn of Africa, they should be. The Red Sea is not just another shipping lane—it is the lifeblood of global trade, connecting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Control over its waters dictates economic power, military supremacy, and geopolitical leverage.
Right now, China has dug in deep, establishing a formidable presence in Djibouti, just a stone’s throw from the Bab el Mandeb Strait. If left unchecked, Beijing’s growing stranglehold over these waters will pose a direct challenge to U.S. influence in the region.
But Somaliland presents an alternative. With its deep-water port of Berbera, situated across from Yemen, it offers America a strategic foothold to counter Chinese ambitions. A U.S. military presence in Somaliland would send an unmistakable message to Beijing, Turkey, and any other power looking to assert dominance in the region—Washington is here to stay.
A Moral and Strategic Imperative
Beyond strategy, there is a deeper moral argument at play. Somaliland has done what few others in the region have managed—it has built a peaceful, democratic, and functional state, all without international recognition or financial support from global institutions.
It has held elections. It has maintained stability. It has governed effectively.
And yet, it remains in diplomatic purgatory while Somalia—wracked by terrorism, corruption, and instability—continues to enjoy international legitimacy. This hypocrisy cannot stand. If America truly champions democracy and self-determination, then recognizing Somaliland is not just an option—it is an obligation.
The Cost of Hesitation
Washington has a choice to make. Delay, and it allows China to tighten its grip on the Red Sea. Stall, and it emboldens autocratic regimes that seek to challenge U.S. dominance. Waver, and it risks repeating the same mistakes that have allowed adversaries to expand their influence unchecked.
Yes, there will be pushback—from Somalia, from the African Union, from regional powers like Egypt and Djibouti. But in 2008, when the U.S. recognized Kosovo, the world warned of diplomatic fallout, of chaos, of retaliation. Those warnings proved empty. Kosovo still stands, a sovereign state recognized by over 100 nations. America’s gamble paid off.
The same boldness is needed now.
The Moment of Decision
History does not wait for the hesitant. Somaliland is America’s next Kosovo, a rare chance to reshape the strategic landscape in its favor. The window of opportunity is open, but it will not stay open forever.
Will Washington seize the moment and recognize Somaliland?
Or will it let this historic chance slip away, only to regret it when the balance of power in the Red Sea tilts beyond its control?
The answer to that question will define America’s role in the region for decades to come.
