Somalia/Somaliland :The Misapprehension about US Recognition

Yousuf Haji Noor Hirsee, Jeddah 2013

The Impact of the Somali President’s Visit to America   The visit of the President of Somalia on January 17th, 2013 to the USA and his subsequent meeting with the top leadership in Washington, D.C, has resulted in a premature jubilation in Somalia, and a rather complex reaction by the opinion formers of the Republic of Somaliland.   USA Recognition of Somalia!!   Before, we dwell on the alleged significance of US recognition, mistakenly believed by some as a political game changer, let us look at the political reality of Somalia. The Obama administration is recognizing the status quo ante, just like Great Britain, France, and Italy etc. They recognize a Somalia that existed  as a normal state in the past, in other words. The US  stand is this: the consequences involving the death of US soldiers in the 1992-193 South Somalia conflict is now over. However, in reality they are recognizing Somalia in their present form: a disjointed ramshackle state dependent on AMISOM. A rump state, divided into warring regions with Al-Shabab, warlords, tribal chieftains and pirate supporting regions. To this strange concoction, add three highly important regions controlled indirectly by Ethiopia or, directly by Kenya (Jubaland). The world polity, for its worth is recognizing a disarmed, politically enfeebled, economically and financially chained regime. The coastline of Somalia remains in dispute, even land-locked Uganda feels it deserves a share in it. Sensing, but not directing the political maneuverings at a local or sub-strategic level, the recognition confirms that Southern Somalia is up for partition. See the recent article on the Ethiopia-Kenya partnership on the “Management” of Somalia. Finally, the Duel Policy approach to Somalia and Somaliland adopted by the US, UK, Scandinavia, and even Italy remains in force.  A number of neighboring countries, and the countries mentioned above maintain separate representative offices in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland. To all intent and purposes, the country of Somalia is in fact, consist of portions of the former Italian Somalia.   Somaliland’s International Status   Somaliland’s perception in the diplomatic arena is unambiguous. It is perceived as a cohesive, stable state that is in charge of its territory. It’s beyond De Facto recognition and bordering on De Jure. Major states like US, UK, and Scandinavia states, and to a lesser extent regional organizations treat Somaliland as a separate entity from Somalia, reserving a seat in IGAD, AU and some UN institutions, for example. That is a fact. The President of Somaliland, Ahmed M. Silaanyo’s government is relentlessly pursuing a policy of projecting and maintaining Somaliland’s statehood, and its separateness from Somalia. The recent separate visits of both President’s to Djibouti on the anniversary of the adoption of a Somali script is a case in point. Both were welcomed at the airport by President of Djibouti. Furthermore, Somaliland, enjoys good relations with its neighbors, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Puntland, the pirate-infested sometimes part of Somalia.   Recognition in Perspective   Well, I hope that people understand that, while recognition is important diplomatic vehicle, it is not, the be all and end all; there is nothing permanent in international affairs. Self-interest reigns supreme. Consider this: European Yugoslavia, supported by Russia, China and some democratic Western countries had full recognition and sovereignty over its territory. A civil war (1991-1999)ensued, which led to the  departure of Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Kosovo until, finally Yugoslavia was reduced to just Serbia. Somalia in its weak condition may lose more than Somaliland. Read the article, ‘ The new scramble for Somalia”. Somaliland’s Response The official reaction to the “recognition of Somalia” can be discerned from the pronouncement of  president Ahmed M. Silaanyo, and his tireless foreign minister, Mohammed Abdilahi. Simply put: continued commitment to logical, mature and steadfast pursuit of regaining Somaliland’s statehood. Likewise, the stand of the ruling party Kulmiye, and opposition parties Ucid ,  and Wadani plus the chairpersons of both houses of Parliament re-affirmed their un-wavering support for remaining steadfast in single-mindedly pursuing the just cause of “re-gaining Somaliland’s position as a recognized state that pre-dates Somalia. Somaliland gained its independence from Britain on June 26th, 1960; Somalia July 1st, 1960. To shed some light on the above, I will strive to analyse the situation from the different perspectives taken by Somalilanders. Firstly, the worrisome propositions taken by a minority of former officials of past governments and a few opposition figures who maintain a stranglehold on the Somaliland media, subsequently, their statements give rise to embarrassing themselves and the country’s cause in the electronic media and over the airways. The former speaks variously of the impending danger from a miraculously resuscitated and rearmed  Somalia invading Somaliland!! Somalia is incapable of feeding, clothing, training and paying a small army, let alone invading a cohesive country with a disciplined professional army, trained by elite former Northern officers of the old Somali army. It is a stupid joke. Is it conceivable, that a ramshackle state, kept afloat by UNISOM African armies, can entertain the notion of taking on Somaliland? The other faulty position expressed by the defeatist is that, the Somaliland-Somalia meetings started under the auspices of the Somalia conference in London (July 2011) could lead, God forbid to the reunification of Somaliland with the failed state of Somalia. Amazingly, they claim that, the AMISOM-protected government, whose rule is disputed in many regions, save for Mogadishu on good days, and possess the were-with-all to win over the hearts and minds of the politically stable Somaliland. Those defeatists’ elements are but a tiny minority with hardly any influence. Unfortunately, they fail to recognize that, “Somaliland’s War of Reclaiming Independence (1981-1991)” has been successfully concluded, and there is no turning back. The Impact of Somalia’s “Recognition” on Talks with Somaliland The Historic London Conference and subsequent conferences were held between two equal states, Somaliland and Somalia. Under the strong diplomatic pressure of Somaliland, the “Presidents” of the disparate States of Somalia and ministers of Somaliland origin in the Mogadishu team were excluded from these meetings. This established process will continue. Moreover, it is absolutely important to understand that, this is an on-going process, with UK foreign office observers present. The process may take months to a year, but the next stage might be arbitration based on the minutes taken by the observers. Logically, the International Court of Justice, the African Union, and the UNO might be brought in at some stage, but not necessarily in that order. Somalia’s position on union/independence is based on immature emotions, greed and fear of what they perceive as further dismemberment, but that is their project, not Somaliland’s. Finally to the few pessimists at home and the dreamers in the Somalia, I would like you to ponder on these illuminating verses from a poem by, Ali Seenyo, who understood the nature of the talks and the process as explained above: Kala guurkii maa ahoo                 we have not reached the intended separation  Waa kala gurashadii ye garo      It (the talks) concerns disengagement, so understand this   For the vast majority of Somalilanders, having gone through a ten year struggle, and a referendum which supported separation from Somalia, regularly holding democratic multi-party elections, the option of union is dead and buried. The country had elected four different administrations with a smooth, mature and safe transfer of power with the presence of credible international observers. These former administrations are those of Abdul-Rahman  Ahmed  Ali (Tuur) 1991-3), Mohame
d Ibrahim Mohammed Egal (1993-2002), Dahir Riyaale Kaahin (2002-2010), who handed over office to the present leader Ahmed Mohammed Mohamud (Silaanyo). Why, then you may ask, do countries, major ones at that continue to recognize Somalia, a perennially weak state. Professor Michael Weinstein of Perdue University, Indiana provides a deep insight to this issue. He still describes the present government as “provisional”. He is inclined to accept, that a kind of Trusteeship Administration for the next 20 years could established,  given its lack of resources. To conclude, Somaliland has rightly offered its good offices and support to Somalia once it regains its sovereignty. Otherwise, holding to a the dream of a united Somalia, will in the long run cause Somalia endless grief, loss of territory to neighboring countries; on the other hand Somaliland could survive and bid its time, unquestionably recognition will ultimately be achieved. Somaliland can afford to wait, Somalia cannot. Further Reading: 01- IGAD Joint Committee of Ethiopia and Kenya under the auspices of former Kenyan Minister, Mr. Kipruto Arap Kirwa, IGAD Facilitator for Somalia Peace and Reconciliation (IFSPR), 6, 2012. 02-Memorandum of Understanding on Somalia, signed by AMISOM, UNPOS, and IGAD Facilitator. April 28th, 201028 (Somalia Excluded from Meeting). 03- Professor Michael Weinstein of Perdue University, Indiana, USA Somalia trapped in servile or abusive international relations December 29, 2012. 04- Declaration of the Initial Members of the Joint Financial Management Board at the London Conference, Feb. 23rd, 2012 05- Mohammed Kenyan: Understanding Stakeholder Groups, Facing Relations and Still Retaining Faith. June 26th, 2012 06- The Guardian Newspaper: African Democracy: A Glass Half Full. March 31st,2012 07- Daily Nation: The New Scramble for Somalia; Charles Onyango-Obbo; February