For a variety of reasons, it is an uphill task to revive the collapsed state of Somalia. Yet, the current Federal Government of Somalia (SFG) stood the best prospect for restoring the failed political institutions of Somalia. President Hassan got a golden opportunity to pull this war-torn nation out of the black hole into which it has fallen in 1991. He was given a chance to turn the page on the past and start writing history in a new chapter.
I am afraid President Hassan squandered an opportunity to become a national icon. Remember how Nelson Mandela became a hero. Unlike the painful struggle of the South African’s great statesman, President Hassan – through luck and little efforts – met his ‘stroke of luck’ at the doorstep. But I think it takes more than mere luck to become a hero. It requires intrinsic heroic trait.
If you objectively appraise the opportunity given to President Hassan against his achievements, you will sadly conclude that the man is an underachiever. Let me refresh your memories.
The successful closure of the protracted and painful transitional period to permanent Federal institutions has set off a spat of renewed hope, international attention and interest.
The diplomatic compassion which President Hassan’s government obtained from the international community has been immensely overwhelming. The recognition and support given to the Federal Institutions by the member states of the European Union, Norway, the United States, Japan and other global and regional bodies including the Bretton Wood institutes (the World Bank and the IMF), the UN, the Arab Leagues, the OIC and the AU have been particularly very impressive.
Many trustingly believed that the international legitimacy of the government would usher in a new political dispensation that could take this war-ravaged nation across the bridge.
Unfortunately, this optimism is quickly ebbing out of sight. The enthusiasm and confidence people had in the new SFG leadership is undermined by the injudicious policies of the President. Misguided policies are escalating conflict and division among Somalis along tribal lines. Although the government is gaining a foothold in the diplomatic space, it is terribly – very terribly – failing to win the hearts and minds of its people.
Put differently, President Hassan is widely alleged to be a man pressing lopsided tribal agenda, rather than national goals.
Consequently, his government seems to have lost both legitimacy and momentum. Like this proverbial ‘headless chicken’, government ministers are moving all over the country to cause havoc. It is sad to know that a SGF minister has deliberately orchestrated the recent tragic incident in Kismayo – that saw the death of more than 50 civilians and innocent teenagers.
Let me tell you where the rain started beating the SFG. I don’t think the problem is the president per se. It is only the buck stops at him. The problem lies with the sad lot that forms his inner circle.
I think, dark forces within his political organisation are trying to manipulate ‘his’ opportunity to externalise the cost of a ‘tribal warfare’.
That is why President Hassan should be wary of what is going in Villa Somalia. He should act firm and fast to dismantle and distance himself from these dark forces. He should do something to redeem his tainted national image.
Just reflect how the pattern of politics in Somalia was taking shape since Mr. Hassan was elected president late last year. Dangerous tides of tribalism have gone up in the sky. Tribal figureheads, who purport to speak for “the government”, took centre stage of the national policies. Why president Hassan accepted such myopic groups to usurp his political agency is beyond me. But that is not all, there is more.
The government’s strategy of ‘political conflict’ is also increasingly motivating infamous warlords to return in the public sphere. Some of the most notorious warlords have resuscitated from the political oblivion. I think they have smelt blood.
The SFG made several strategic blunders that led to the prevailing political tribalism and warlordism. But none was more hurting than the government’s casual argument against the formation of Jubbaland. I will leave here why the casual argument of the SFG against the formation of regional administrations is untenable political hubris.
First, President Hassan’s reluctance to the formation of regional administration are not in consistency with the commitments made by Somali participants of 2004 Reconciliation Conference in Nairobi – which is the reference point of the current political settlement. Neither is it consistent with the decentralised governance structures enshrined in the provisional Constitution of Somalia.
Political rhetoric aside, senior aides that command the ears of the President do not believe – and will not allow for that matter – federalism to take effect in Somalia. They are hell-bent on reversing the political consensus – federalism on which the current political set up is anchored.
As they say actions speak lauder than words. All their actions are biased towards reviving highly centralised governance structure in Somalia. Even the executive powers which are – by design – expected to be shared between the President and the Prime Minister are concentrated in the office of the president. President Hassan’s grip on power is absolute. That is why he is the centre of gravity.
Of course, the President and his political ‘cogs’ are entitled to their opinion. And the applicability of federalism in the context of Somalia is legitimately debatable. But they should not try to force their opinion down the throat of the ‘rest’. That would be a risky strategy – one that can slide the country back into bloodshed. Of course, we have been there before. It is a no-go territory. We still bear the scars.
Secondly, notwithstanding the absence of a ‘central government’ is ultimately at the root of the crisis in Somalia, it is the revival of a ‘central authority’ that lies at the heart of the conflict. This is paradoxically puzzling – as ‘central government’ is both a solution to the crisis and the most obvious obstacle that makes a solution to the crises a bridge too far. Let me expound this a bit. .
The bitter experience of the Somali people from dysfunctional and often predatory ‘central governments’ instilled them with profound suspicion of the state’s ‘monopoly on the means of violence’. History has it that the state has long being used as a tool to dominate and maltreat political opponents in Somalia.
Examples abound. Late dictator General Mohamed Siyad Barre’s ‘reign of terror’ effectively utilised the state apparatus to humiliate and abuse the human rights of his political nemeses. His shock troops committed one outrage after another to destroy property and restrict the political freedom of their people.
President Abdikasim Salad Hassan misused the mandate of his Transitional National Government to settle political scores with his opponents. He sponsored his own clan militia to expand the influence of his government, to loot, destroy property and use violence to inflicted significant pain on those who contested his rule.
The power struggle between President Abdillahi Yusuf’s Transitional Federal Government and the Islamic Courts Union – compounded with the proxy war between Eretria and Ethiopia – almost sent the country to hell in a handbasket. President Sharif Sheik Ahmed found himself in a minefield, planted by his “own men”. History has nothing significant to write about him.
But this is not the time and place to unpick all historical events. The point here is that those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it. Put it differently, the bitter experience of the Somalis from the state’s ‘legitimate monopoly on the means of violence’ makes the revival of a ‘central authority’ a ‘zero-sum game’ – one that has winners and losers. None of the main political antagonists – or rival clans – is willing to lose the control of the state apparatus to a rival. That is why all previous efforts for restoring a ‘central authority’ in Somali have failed.
The intention of this article is not to proscribe a formula for success; it is rather to define the problem that impedes a solution for our political conundrum. However, once the problem is identified, the remedy suggests itself.
For that matter, I will end where I started. The restoration of centralised authority in Somalia is an act in futility. We can’t just keep repeating the same mistake. We need to learn from our past – and correct our pitfalls. Time has come to it let go.
Said Faadi
Email: said.faadi@gmail.com
Somalia is in a critical condition. The way things are going, I'm afraid the worst may have to come.
Somalia-Italia's road map signatories Are in a power struggle for Dominance. Faroole as a signatory of the road map process has to show that he is observing the dictates of the road map agreement to refrain from being a spoiler. In order that he may not face international condemnation he has found indirect means to undermine his road-map allies and the road-map president hassan mahamoud.
Faroole will never employ political tactics that are in violation of the road-map agreement however he has directly supported Madoobe in the bid to undermine Hassan Mahamoud's Presidential status. Faroole is happy to fuel and fan the flames of war in Kismanyo simply to derail the road map process and ensure there is never a centralized system of governance in Somalia-italia.
Without a centralized governance structure in Somalia-Italia the 22years of failure witnessed will continue and we will witness a return to piracy, militancy and abuse of the poverty striken.
Puntland is a prime example of why Federalism is a failure, considering that puntland established it's federalism in 1998 piracy only became an issue in the last 10years where it was evidence that puntland federal politicians directly benefited from piracy activity. Hassa mahamoud has no power to prevent piracy within puntland.
This notion of federals able to act as they please without any central authority is a dangerous concept. They can wage wars without Hassan mahamoud's consent, they can support differing political foreign agendas and as a consequence go to war over issues like the Nile water conflict.
At present puntland is promoting the illegal Jubaland formation and this has caused an all out war in southern Somalia-italia, similarly puntland would like to cause conflicts in all it's neighboring sovereign states like Ethiopia and Somaliland all in the hopes of having a greater political relevance in the region.
This is a recipe for future disaster.
The troops in puntland must be commanded by ONE President in Muuqdishu if there is to be an end to piracy and militants. Guns for hire militia will not stop piracy.
MJ's are 1 of the weakest sub-clans physically but are 1 of the most cunning 1 mentality. You look at all the trouble in the South and you will find that they have their hands all over it.
Easter Somaliland conflict are fueled by ???
Gaalkaciyo conflicts is fueled by?
Kismanyo conflict is fueled by?
Who was the first to invite non-somalis onto somali soil to gain advantage?
Who assassinated the 2nd President of the Union?
Who attempted to over through Siyad after the 1977war while Somalis were recovering?
Who promotes Federalism?
Who wants to weaken Somalis in Kilil, NFD, Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti if they could?
Who has made profit from Tahriib for 22years?
If Hawiye were smart people they would negotiate for a permanent solution to re-establish Somalia-Italia governed from Muuqdishu with it's pre 1960 Borders.
It is better to loose the union-Battle and win the Statehood-War to safe Somalia-Italia from federalism.
The million $ Question ? NOT
Mogadishu is for a transparent IC observed referendum to take place in Somaliland with my opinion lets say a clear 60% majority for or against but strangely Hargeisa is dragging its feet.
There was a rumour that there was a proposal made by the British for a South Sudan style Somaliland where it came back under the authority of Mogadishu in a autonomous way till the referendum took place but with Hageisa.
So the sooner Hargeisa realises this self harming dragging feet business (getting the IC angry) is not doing any good for them the quicker it can become a real authority of real country.
Dear IRIR Samaale,
What referendum are you talking about? The Hargeisa Govt like the north main Sudan
is harboured on its 26 June 1960 post Independence and is not like South Sudan.
The Hargeisa authority are also the ousting powers that brought the strong Military
headed by Gen Siade Barre and liberated the whole of Somaliland ex colonial
demarcation boundaries through the gun barrel in 1991. In the aftermath to the
current two decades the Somaliland Nation is fully functioning democratically peaceful
and stable bunkering the full sovereignty Independence of June 26 1960.
What makes the war torn Somalia superior to the stable Somaliland is beyond
logical comprehension. Today, Hargeisa is the shining candelight for the imporvished
Somalia plight. Somaliland has no problems with the IC that you worship.
Cheers.
Well said Mohamed Cheers.
If the time comes that We negotiate with Faroole and other Anti-Abgaal groups then it is Somalia-Italia that will loose.
We would like to see a unified Somali-Italia State that is a peaceful neighbor…
But if we have to invite Faroole to Hargeysa to make him President of Muuqdishu then so be it. We will even give Faroole all the troops he needs to crush any resistance.
Idiotic secessionists are too obsessed with MJs, it's bizarre and quite frankly weird!
The problem with this government as i see it is that he is trying to revive a centralized government way too soon for a lot of peoples liking. Whether this is through his own design or by outside influences its a matter of debate as we are not privy to the going on's inside villa Somalia.
What is evident however is that President Hassan has wasted too much unnecessary energy on the issue of autonomous states particularly Jubaland. He would have been better off consolidating his power in the areas his government controls and fighting alshabab.
On the issue of Somaliland, we know that this man is not interested in negotiating a settlement with Somaliland, so the only viable option for Somaliland right now is to completely stop all talks with Somalia and strengthen ties with our one true friend in this world Ethiopia. Somaliland should with the help of Ethiopia build its arm forces as a deterrent against our enemy Somalia.
Madar,
One thing is sure that President HSM is no fool and sees a big daunting challenges within
the war-torn chaotic anarchy warlordism high-handedness, even-handedness, not to say the
least about the Somaliland natural quest of its kind. However, the Somaliland political issues are
seperate affairs outside the scope of the SFG roadmap Signatories treaty powers for Somalia.
Otherwise IMO that President HSM is cool and nicely handling the conflicting confrontations within
the International boundaries of the Somalia-Italia. Right now, the biggest problems facing the SFG
are not only condusive to the Ashabab fighters but more bigger dangerous are the unilateral
declarations of mini enclave so called states!. A centralized good governance is the only workable
solution for Somalila likewise the Somaliland.
Cheers.
Cheers.
The whole notion of Federalism is the brainchild of IGAD namely Ethiopia and Kenya whose vested interest is never to see a strong Somalia but rather a bantustan enclaves in the form of X-lands so that Somalia stays in perpetual weak country never a threat to their neighbours. It's unfortunate that Somalis can't work-out a system of government that serves them probably taking into account the past dictatorial regimes and their abuses and put in place guidelines so that it's not repeated …rather than breaking the country along tribal lines and calling that a democracy ……
Mr cheers,
You fail to see the big picture in this, President Hassan Sheikh is a 'centralist' at heart and in this he is being supported by Arab regional powers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who for their own geo-political reasons are anti-Somaliland and pro Somaliweyn.
Egypt, as you are well aware in terms of recent developments, are planning to destabilize Ethiopia due to the Nile dam issue. For this reason they will never support Somaliland independence. Somaliland on the other hand has only two choices remaining: 1) either give up its quest for independence and re- join a centralized federal republic of Somalia governed from Mogadishu; 2) Stick with its independence stance resolutely that they have pursued for the last 22 yrs.
If Somaliland pursues option 2, which is supported by 90% of Somaliland population inside and abroad, this would mean an inevitable war with the South. In pursuing option 2 Somaliland has only one true friend and that will be Ethiopia who will have no option but to support Somaliland in its war with Somalia. Further to this, if Somaliland is going to be recognized, this recognition is likely to come from Ethiopia rather than anyone else.
Madar,
your mentality is outdated and you are stuck with the past. Why can't you see what the
Arab Spring have done and still doing. President HSM is the boss of the SFG and
is free to serve his powers, that's his business. The Egypt that you are talking about
is a new Egypt and not the old Egypt. Forget about the Nile river disputes between
Ethiopia and Egypt…that's their business and Somaliland Govt would remain
neutral and remain friendly with both Ethiopia and Egypt and the AU and AL/OIC and
beyond. The strong Somaliland Govt is not the weak Somalia. The special relations
between Somaliland and Ethiopia are mutual based on both sides benefitting
from each other with neither misusing the other unlawfully. Even the Saudis and the
GCC can no longer deny the Somaliland quest..simply in changing world orders,
the past strategies are no longer reassuring!. Threfore, I simply reject your false
assumptions and continue to abide by my visionary ways of analysing certain things
in my own ways of endeavouring to catch up with so many changes.
Cheers.
Okay Mr Cheers, you stick to your rose tinted glass view of the world or as you have so aptly put it your self 'my visionary ways of analyzing' and i will stick to my way of interpreting events and lets agree to disagree, its obvious that we see things from completely opposite lenses.
food for though, though this blog is not known for a serious in depth analysis and fair assessment of things Somali, here is a though provoking piece http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/07/01/reconcil…
enjoy
Samaale
"How do you think you captured placed like Laascaanood in 2007 and getting stronger in those regions ever since i assure you that it wasn't because of your "Might Somaliland Army" kkkkk, did you know 80% forces in lascaanod ARE dhulbahante not iidor. dhuloz in that part of northen somalia are not pure dhulaz they invited iidor to lascanood.
Why iidor could not go Buhoodle, the answer is simple buhoodle folks do not want that. also there is fire power.
Dear IRIR Samaale
Brothda, am afraid the opposite is true.Without Hargeisa powers, the Hawiye
can't withstand the Darodism eccentrics endeavouring to share the strangulation
of Villa Della Somalo Capital Mogadiscio SFG from all directions. Without Hargeisa
powers the Hawiye can never outsmart the vulnerable Darodism..you kill them all
and again they breed from the graveyards. LOL. Just kidding.
Cheers.
ONLF, NFD are foreign invasion forces and Pirateland cannot accept to be part of federal system where no one tribe can claim an exclusive territory; where the indigenous local populace cannot be displaced by people who came from far regions. The fake administration headed by the terrorist Ahmed Madobe see here
and Puntland's Faroole are responsible for any insecurity, hostility or any animosity that may take place among the clans of Lower Juba. None of those who are holed up in Kismayo University today were able to come and claim Lower Juba and Kismayo like the rightful inhabitants when Al-shabaab was there.
Somalia is the sole party responsible to stabilize the country and stop those who want to bring the piracy of high seas inland. If you are the rightful traditional political leadership of the region, why are you running away from the government of Somalia? If you have transparent and democratic process, why do you want to only meet in a neutral venue (read Kenya) acceptable to all the parties concerned? The issue of Lower Juba is a Somali issue and it is not for Kenya or IGAD to decide its fate.
CENTRALISED GOVERNMENT my ass. I have lost faith in Somalia After 20 years the morons Hawiye never learn a single thing.
I think Puntland should respect colonial borders and give up SSC I believe the Harti Darood in SSC will be more happy with Somaliland because Reer Isaaq are civilized they are people who love peace.
Puntland and Jubaland should both declared independent from the majority Hawiya south and merge with the Ogaden region from Ethiopian.
PuntlandGeezer finally talking sense lol
Federal republic of somalia independence 1 july 1960 – 53th anniversary.( video)
SOMALIA: 1 July 1960 (from a merger of British Somaliland that became independent from the UK on 26 June 1960 and Italian Somaliland that became independent from the Italian-administered UN trusteeship on 1 July 1960 to form the Somali Republic) . The idea of possible merger of the British and Italian Somalilands surfaced as early as 1959.
By May of 1960, British Colonial Secretary, Ian Maclead officially stated that Britain was about to grant independence to Somaliland protectorate so that it can unite with Italian Somaliland (Somalia), which was scheduled to become a sovereign state on July 1, 1960. The Secretary made his announcement while Somaliland leaders were in London for talks on a constitution. He underlined that the merge between the two Somalilands was in accord with the wishes of the British Somaliland leaders who want to join Italian Somaliland.
On April, 1960, the Legislative Council (in British Somaliland) passed a resolution, asking not only for independence but also to unite with Somalia. And after having one-week conference in Mogadishu, the two sides jointly announced that the two Somalilands will unite as a Somali Republic, and the two Legislative Councils will be merging into one National Assembly.
Again, on June 27, 1960, the Somaliland Legislative Council unanimously passed a bill that unites Somaliland with Somalia.
Somaliland Italy the Struggle for independence led by Somali Youth League (SYL) was one great thing that helped the Somali people.
Many Somalis may know little or nothing about Somalia Independence day, which serves a great memory and historic day for the people of Somalia. Also, there those people who don’t understand the benefits of being an independent country with its own flag and recognition.
The independence Somalia gained in 1960 both SOUTH and NORTH was achieved through a long struggle and bloodshed, and many nationalists lost their wealth and lives in that course. Many African nations were too waging nationalist wars to defeat the European colonialists.
On May 15th 1943, thirteen Somali youth established the Somali Youth Club which later changed its name to Somali Youth League on May 15th 1947.
On July 1, 1960, the 5-pointed white star flag was hoisted; and the next day, the union of the two Somalilands (British and Italian) was formally ratified by the National Assembly. Margery Perham of The Times has described the birth of the new Republic as Siamese twins.
Source: http://www.jubbalandmedia.com
That is just a history and his only tells what has been.
Somaliland isn't a country and shouldn't be, my family is from the so called country 'Somaliland' and i hate hearing it. I'm embarrassed by you people always begging Britain and other countries for help and recognition. 'Somaliland' people say that they want to be a different country because of the Said Barre regime that hurt you people, THE MAN IS DEAD AND HIS REGIME IS GONE. The americans would say about their enemies "United we Stand, Divided we Fall" and this is a perfect example of what happened to somalia. Ethiopia took western somalia, Kenya took Southern somalia, French gave Djibouti their Indepence, and now we are begging for another seperation. This is too much for somalis to bare and is too embarrassing, Also you people say you guys had peace and freedom so what have you people been doing since 'Independence from Somalia' and the so called country looks like a hell hole. At the moment the Somali Government have got more done in the last 3 years than all of 'Somaliland' have in 20 years. Dont you guys feel embarrassed by this, im a child and i know the seperation of 'Somaliland' is wrong. Somalis from allover the country are the same and should be proud to be somali and 'Somaliland' people should help in the rebuilding of somalia.
Peace and may allah remove the tribislist minds that somalis have today. Allah bring our country back to its former state and even better than what it was. Allahuakbar, Loving all somalis and and not caring about tribes is how somalia will become a superpower and help somalis enter paradise.
Those who believe CENTRALISED GOVERNMENT their IQ and Mental status should be check. they are many reason Somalia will not have CENTRALISED GOVERNMENT which runs all aspect in somali society, the power will be divided two central government will have certain role to play also Autonomous states will have certain role to play.
Here is the full reasons why Centralized Government will not happen.
1- Today there are few semi-autonomous states within federal republic of Somalia.
2- Somalis in general are not interested to see another centrelized Government they seen before.
3- How do you create centralized government while Somali capital own and run one clan.
4- International community are not keen to see another certralized authoritarian government.
5- If Centralized government establish then civil war is Unavoidable
Allemagan/keysa,
It looks you obsessed with Puntland worry about where ever you from. ONLF-NFD + Puntland have nothing to do with Jubbaland state. the people in jubbaland are running their affairs defeding themselves from Moryaan led mission and Al-shabab which already completely failed.
In your word " If you have transparent and democratic process, why do you want to only meet in a neutral venue", ask this question yourself, why 90% district commissioners Mogadishu surburs are one clan? get real do not be selfish person with other agenda.
Culusow and his moryaan group including Al-shabab did their best to destabilize Jubbaland state but, the dedication resilience of Jubbaland admin and Jubbaland arm forces repelled all thugs from ksimayu.
Those captured alive or handed over themselves,
– Iftiin Xasan Baasto. ( warlord+ Al-shabab paid by vIlla moryaan)
– Cabdi Baaley ( warlord + Al-shabab paid by vIlla moryaan)
– Cumor buraale ( warlord + Al-shabab paid by vIlla moryaan)
– Barre Huurale he is on the run in the bush but Jubbaland arm forces are on his tail.
Jubbaland admin and it's people will not spare any blood to defend their land what ever the cost is. there are enough forces to defend Jubbaland.
Dear all,
I'm very impressed with the way each one of you is expressing the opinion, with, of course, few who stray from the main topic and let their passion dictate their method of communication. As a Somalilander, who dearly loves his country and would use his sweat and blood to defend it, nothing would make me, also, happier to see my brothers deal with their issue in civilized manner.
I agree the current Somalia Italia government is trying to do too much to early, but at least they are trying and should get one more year before the fruits of their work takes shape.
When it comes to Somaliland, I agree, I think we should stop negotiating with the SFG. They don't have the means, the power, the guts and the attitude to give concessions to the people of Somaliland. SFG is just trying to buy time until it deals with its internal issues. The real war will be, sadly again, between Somaliland and Somalia proper.
For Somalilanders, stop focusing on the process and time wasting of the SFG, be ready for the second coming. The LOOMING war that is inevitable.
For Puntand, we will be neighbors for eternity and Somaliland should find a way to make a peace. Common sense!
Chees,