Every four years, due to election impasse, the Somali People have to deal with the specter of political violence and civil strife instead of celebrating the results of peaceful, free, and fair election affirming the legitimacy of the authority of the federal Government. The last one-year election (2021-2022) jeopardized the viability of the Somali State. Nevertheless, the general public felt relief when new parliamentarians took the oath to sacrifice their personal interests and serve the interests of the Somali people with honesty, integrity, and impartiality, an oath betrayed.
However, in less than a year after election ended, Somalis started feeling anger and shame for being represented by self-serving, abusive, arrogant, and incompetent parliamentarians and the leaders they elected. The problem is all leaders and public officials disregard the tenets of democratic system of governance based on the respect of the rule of law, of citizens’ human rights and freedoms, including citizens’ participation in the decision-making processes of all matters of public concern and interests.
The 2012 political dispensation ended the fragmented Somalia into Somaliland, Puntland, and South-Central territories and established the Federal Government of Somalia as the sole legitimate representative of the entire people and country of the Federal Republic of Somalia born on July 1, 1960. That historical dispensation has rekindled a strong hope for united, peaceful, stable, and prosperous Somalia governed by democratically elected leaders who faithfully adhere to the rule of law and not to the rule by law.
Unfortunately, after 12 years of massive international support and the Somali people’s best efforts and pray for successful leaders, the people’s optimism for harmony and significant progress evaporated and the fear for political violence and the dismemberment of the federal state has pervaded public conscience. Today, the Federal Government and FMS feast with the 70% of international budget support, the enforcement of Chapter VII, the international humanitarian and diplomatic support.
In consideration of the growing public discontent and complaints, the Imams of mosques started delivering during Friday prayers sermons concerning the responsibility of Somali leaders to serve the people with honesty, humility. justice, and competence, and with the warning of harsh punishment assured to the hypocrites described in the Quran and the Hadith of Allah’s Messenger. Allah said in Surah Al Baqarah (Verse 2:204):
“And of the people is he whose speech pleases you in worldly life, and he calls Allah to witness as to what is in his heart, yet he is the fiercest of opponents.”
Prophet Mohamed, the Messenger of Allah (PBABUH) described the hypocrite with three signs: “1. When he speaks, he lies; 2. when he promises, he breaks it; 3. when he is trusted, he betrays his trust.” It is said that “The hypocrites are always confused because they continue planning deceit and conspiracies. Outwardly they appear to be with the believers while inwardly they are with disbelievers.”
During president Farmajo’s term, former President Hassan distinguished himself as an opposition leader, advocating for democratic governance and respect of the rule of law and the views of the opposition and the people. He rightly criticized the mistakes and abuses of president Farmajo’s Administration with regard to the human rights violations, bullying and marginalizing the Federal Member States, unlawful term extension and unilateral administration of election. The criticisms and comments of president Hassan were harsh and unforgettable. Finally, former President Hassan has been reelected on May 15, 2022 and was sworn in to perform his constitutional duties with honesty and in the best interests of the Somali people and to be a true democrat.
In his reelection campaign, President Hassan was advised to avoid the problems that marred his first term like the mismanagement of government affairs, the allegations of endemic corruption, and the association with personalities accused of narcissism, sycophantism, incompetence, and being agents of foreign countries. He was strongly recommended to follow through the pledges he made during his presidential reelection campaign, including the focus on the critical role and responsibilities of the president, the separation of powers between the legislative, executive, and independent judiciary, respect of the role and views of the opposition, respect of free media, the strengthening of accountability and transparency for the ultimate aim of establishing federal democratic state capable of fulfilling all state functions.
Inexplicably, immediately after he took his oath of office for the second term, unflattering news spread out that president Hassan, famous for his retail politics, ridicules public dialogue, ignores public policy processes, and displays anger, disdain, and dismissive attitudes, grievances and threats to all except few comrades, monopolization of power and defense of nepotism, and fervor for nerve-raking foreign trips. Some regional Presidents complained the misuse of National Consultative Council (NCC) meetings for being transformed into Workshops for presentation of slides by officials of the president’s office on issues of national interests without prior public policy processes. That approach undermined the relevance of the NCC because its deliberations were generally rejected by the federal parliament.
President Hassan made his exclusive agenda the defeat of Al Shabab militarily, which received overwhelming support because it represented a key to ensure peace, security, and socio-economic development in Somalia. The first phase was to liberate Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Benadir region, followed by the liberation of South West and Jubbaland States in second phase.
However, from the start, there were negative factors signaling the inevitable failure of the war against Al Shabab. First, well informed international actors argued that the lack of cohesion of the political elite and the dysfunction of the security forces were serious obstacles to defeat Al Shabab. For example, Professor Paul D. Williams noted that a Net Assessment analysis between the Somali National Army (SNA) and Al Shabab across seven factors resulted that Al Shabab has military advantage over SNA.
After almost two years, the cost the federal government suffered in terms of human and material in the first phase of the war against Al Shabab is extremely high and devastating and the areas liberated are yet to be reliably stabilized. Other factors that undermined the war are the lack of thorough planning, effective implementation, coordination, the wait-and-see role of federal member states, and the incredible infighting between the federal institutions involved in the war against Al Shabab. The level of disfunction of the federal government institutions is inconceivable.
The controversial process for completing the provisional constitution, the lack of honest political dialogue on 2026 federal election, the dispute between the federal government and Puntland and Jubbaland states, the SSC-Khatumo question, and the stay in office of the presidents of the federal Member States after their term expired, all are fueling political crisis that could transform into political violence and dismemberment of the federal state. President Hassan insists on going ahead with one-person-one-vote election in 2026, while the current condition of Somalia challenges the rationality and feasibility of holding One-person-one-vote election, which must eliminate 4.5 clan formula, adopt citizenship, equality, and strengthen unity, harmony, accessibility, freedom, fairness, and transparency among all citizens throughout Somalia. The process requires collective preparation and consensus.
The ill-timed departure of ATMIS forces, the disorganized Somali security forces, the economic and financial meagerness, the tensions with Ethiopia after violating Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and president Hassan’s decried playbook are compounding Somalia’s problems without insight solutions. Somalia needs help to avoid political violence and social suffering. High factionalized elite with foreign meddling and growing public discontent in highly fragile society are prone for unimaginable disaster.
Mohamud M. Uluso is the former Minister and Governor of the Central Bank of Somalia. He is currently a commentator on Somalia’s political and economic landscape.
Mohamuduluso@Gmail.com
