By PAUL WAFULA
Kenya’s exit strategy from Somalia has hit a major diplomatic wall after Mogadishu developed hostility towards the new leadership of a newly formed autonomous region in southern Somalia.
The Standard on Sunday has also learnt the reluctance by Somalia’s federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to warm up to Sheikh Ahmed Madobe’s leadership at Kismayu has created tension between Mogadishu and Nairobi.
This development has complicated Kenya’s plan to exit the war torn-country in what jeopardises an operation that has already gobbled up more than Sh18 billion and lost several lives.
Buffer zone
It is understood that Kenya is counting on the new administration at Kismayu to take charge of the region and form a buffer zone before its troops, alongside the African Union (AU) forces, fade out quietly.
Multiple sources interviewed in Kismayu among them the Kenya Defence Forces, the new President of Somalia’s newest region and locals reckon it will now take much longer than expected to pull KDF out of Somalia. Kenya has been fighting alongside Somali forces since October 2011 in an operation dubbed Linda Nchi, and it was expected to have left the nation after the war against the militant group is completed. People familiar with the operation said Kenya does not want to follow the footsteps of US and Ethiopia who were forced to exit without finding a long-lasting solution.
US in 1992 retreated without success while Ethiopia was forced to pull out in 2009 after three years of heavy casualties.
“Just getting rid of the Al-Shabaab would have been simple, but the new challenges like stabilising Jubaland, handing over the region to a new leadership have made it impossible to tell when we are ever going to leave Somalia,” a captain in charge of one of the troops in Somalia told The Standard on Sunday in an interview at Kismayu. “We have also been delayed by the conferences that have seen the election of new leaders. Details are still sketchy but we are working with a tentative plan of moving to capture the remaining towns, especially in the Gedo region. The truth is we are not leaving this place any time in the near future if events on the ground remain this way,” the captain not authorised to speak to the media said.
But it is Mogadishu’s refusal to participate in the political process, which is now at the final stages in Kismayu that is proving to be the greatest headache for President Madobe’s leadership.
Madobe factor
Sheikh Islam, popularly known as Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, was elected through a process that cost Sh330 million ($3.9million) as the president of the Jubaland State of Somalia. Jubaland comprises of three regions– Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo and is located towards the south of Somalia. Madobe was elected by a conference 500 elders and local leaders.
The reluctance by Mogadishu to recognise the new leadership at Kismayu is threatening to widen the rift and mistrust between the federal government and Madobe’s local government.
Giving out cash
It has also emerged that Mogadishu could be dishing out money to elders in Kismayu, with a view to weaken the support that Madobe has on the ground.
“We have seen the delegation from Mogadishu here in Kismayu at a local hotel call out individuals aside. Talking to them, we have established that some are being given some money. People are very poor here and some money can easily turn one clan against the other,” the source said.
Madobe maintains that his government will proceed with the remaining bit of stabilising Somalia under the realisation that the troops in the country will not be staying in Somalia forever.
“The delegates are currently in the process of electing 65 members of parliament who will be drawn from all the clans here in Jubaland. We will then appoint a cabinet to start work. Our first assignment is to liberate the remaining area of Jubaland from the Al-shabaab,” President Madobe said. “We also want to be able to put in place the mechanism that will provide for the realization of one man one vote, deal with security, education, reconciliation and rehabilitation issues,” Mr Madobe said.
But it is not just the central government that is opposed to the new administration in Kismayu.
Warlord’s decree
Last week, a warlord in Jubaland declared himself “president” of the region, shortly after the election of Madobe to the post.
Mr Barre Hirale, a former Somali defence minister and warlord who comes from a rival clan, declared himself as president at separate conference. However, Mr Madobe dismissed this development arguing that everyone was aware of the process that saw him elected as president and any other person is an imposter.
However, the move by Somalia’s other state, Puntland, to congratulate the new leadership at Kismayu has been seen as a major boost to president Madobe’s reign.
“Puntland congratulates the people of Jubaland State and the new President-elect on organising a community-led consultative conference, adopting a new State Charter, and electing a new President today,” a statement from Office of the President of Puntland said Wednesday.
Puntland said the formation of Jubaland State was fully in accordance with the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC) of Somalia.
Source: Standard Online Media
Kenya shares long border with Somalia and it hosts more two million refugees, so it has a big stake in Somalia particularly Kismayo. Kenya knows that Hawiyas are not thier best friend, it was Aided in 1992 that threathened the peace in Liboi and of course this Mooriyaan president's hiden agenda is unknown to kenyans yet. Madoobe fought with the Kenyans from day one and lost so much fighting Shabaab, he should tell the so called government to go to the hell since they have no power to oust him by force.
Why should Somalis be considered Refugees in NFD?
The land belongs to Somalis and this whole inferiority complex you people have is what is causing your extinction like flies in your own lands.
If Madoobe wants to fight why does he not go and liberate his land in Kenya and Ethiopia?
The man was born in Ethiopia and has not right to be a servant in Somalia-Italia let alone a puppet president dictated to by Kikiyus.
You and your filthy cockroach mindset stinks.
"If Madoobe wants to fight why does he not go and liberate his land in Kenya and Ethiopia?" judgement day will come sooner than the grasshoppers answering this genuine and honest question.
The OG'S have not only been tamed by the Habashis and Bantu but are now being used in Jubbaland (after passing their test in the killing fields of Ogaden) even astonishingly by Pirateland who still deports their "ONLF" aka anyone vocally against Iley/TPLF in their numbers back to Aids Ababa.
But don't you worry the same way they got given a karbashing in Somaliland and Hiiraan will be waiting for them in Jubbaland the indigenous minority OG's will be spared for it's only reasonable for them to wanting power but the refugees will be made to pack their bags and hit with a Persona non grata.
The most funnies thing also coming out is that they want the whole Dadaab refugees (once the HQ for Madobe) be relocated in Jubbaland now first of all not all are from Somalia but 1/4 is from Kilil5.
Second not all are from Jubbaland neither reason why H.E. President Mohamoud is resisting Kenya's call to relocate them there because he also knows the game that is being played and that is to bulganzie the OG's that are already there know.
The once in Kilil 5 are being stopped by Gedo from expanding in to Jubbaland in huge numbers so those refugees who are 1/4 kilil5 OG's are the last option for the OG's to once and for all hijack Jubbaland through sheer numbers the legal way.
the president try to choose his clan first before the xcounrtry is stable his blind idea is bount to fail as he has to realise if he make somalia fail know , every one will have to have there own contry let people of somalia have 8 conurty within somalia and seven boarders this will solve all somali problem. somaliland puntlans khathumoland galmudug land kismayo land mogadishuland awdalland and mahirland
The SFG in Mogadiscio remains the sole authority for the Roadmap Signatories of Somalia.
Without the SFG approval mandate on how the Somalia affairs should be conducted there
would be no other roadmap Signatories overridding the powers of the new SFG.
That should be very clear to Puntland, Jubbaland and the others including the Alshabab fighters.
Mogadiscio remains the old Capital city for all Somalia-Italia. Somaliland is outside the scope
of the SFG powers. Kenya has no business to interfere in the internal affairs of the SFG of
Somalia and if the KDF inside Somalia Soil aint following the instructions of the SFG, then the
SFG should send the KDF home right away quiting the Somalia Soil. The IC stakeholders
should work with the SFG to avoid chaos in the Somalia conflicts of different powers seeking
to override eac others..
Cheers.
tell that to yourself in a dark room you dumbass
Pissy no love lost btn u and me yeah. Your dumbass is now the problem of the SFG.
Cheers.
The big mistake the Kenyans and their Somali alliances have made is that they stopped in Kismayo, instead of liberating the whole Jubbaland territories first from extremists. Now, they have become busy with unpredicted business while 60% of the territory they wish to curve in a state is still occupied by Al-shabab, and due to their short sighted approach of the overall situation in the country will ultimately lead them to complete failure as from the outset their actions proved that their only aim was to take up Kismayo for personal gains, but nothing else.
Kenya is an enemy, the fact they host millions of Somali refugees says it all , Ethiopia expect Oromos are the real enemy of Somalia always has been.
wallahi i dont get daroods. they hate ethiopia while they give massivesomali lands to kenya
Kenya is doing too many mistakes within territory of Somalia, the first one is thronging Madobe whose nationality is a Ethiopian trying to hold foot in Kismayo to help the defeated ONLF, the second mistake is a blind alliance with a clan with miscalculated strategies, the third mistake of behaving as an occupying force than a neighbor which is supporting Federal Government of Somalia.
Somalia everywhere irregardless of their differences are focusing on what Kenya is doing in Kismayo and the to eject them with their stooges will be far while the consequence will be prolonged enmity that will make kenya to pay a heavy price.
President of Somalia should not shying a way from telling the Kenyans to Leave Somalia and replace them by another African Country or even Ethiopia which is far better. in term of collaborating with Somali government.
Kenya is doing too many mistakes within territory of Somalia, the first one is thronging Madobe whose nationality is a Ethiopian trying to hold foot in Kismayo to help the defeated ONLF, the second mistake is a blind alliance with a clan with miscalculated strategies, the third mistake of behaving as an occupying force than a neighbor which is supporting Federal Government of Somalia.
Somalis everywhere irregardless of their differences are focusing on what Kenya is doing in Kismayo and the day to eject them with their stooges will be far while the consequence will be prolonged enmity that will make kenya to pay a heavy price.
President of Somalia should not shy away from telling the Kenyans to Leave Somalia and replace them by another African Country or even Ethiopia which is far better. in term of collaborating with Somali government.
Gee,
Kenya it's not making mistakes they know exactly what they are doing, they do not want somali problem specially moryaan led mission Al-shabab come into their country.
Kenya it's protecting own border, also they know majority inhabitant in jubbaland that is all they interested not MORYAAN shouting from Mogadihsu with full of beans in his mouth no one cares that.
The kenyan arm forces are part of AMISOM same as Uganda and Burindi. if kenya goes so Uganda and Burindi. once Uganda and Burindi GOES moryaan will eat each other on broad daylight. those folks who are refusing kenya are Moryaan Hawiye and diluted distance relatives rest of Somalis have no problem with them. one thing is for sure Jubbaland AUTHORITY will keep moving forward not interested what moryaan think and Hassan NGO. THEY are ready to go all the way if it's necessary.
I would say blame Mr Culusow and his reckless approach. He sought external legitamcy and travelled around the world in order to close the doors on everyone while his government has not even earned the support of its people. He says that he never went out of the country and he studied the ills of his country but he is as ignorant as one can ever get. From the day he took office, he should have set up a reconcilaition committe which would have been dispatched to every place that is liberated and that would have sustained the hope and cultivated trust. Also, It would have distructed people from focusing on his government to the detriment of the process. He has now hit the brick wall and comes back complaing about Kenya as it's a revelation and says Somalians can only solve their problems. Man you were the first to run like lone wolf around the world like the world will mericlously give you a population and a government based on rule of law.
90% all Foreign fighters in Somalia have made their journey Via Kenyan Airports since 2006.
Foreign passengers anywhere else would have set off alarm bless.
If anything it should be Kenya that is invaded for their security weaknesses and their profiteering from Al-Qaida groups.
Qabiil qaran ma noqdo ha ku daalin Isaaqow!
Cid na aqoonsanaysaa ma jirto waayo adduunka oo dhan waa ogyahay in meesha (Somalilnd) ay degaan 5 reer oo afar diiddan tahay goosashada, hal midna doonayo inuu goosto kuwa kalena ku khasbo goosasho aanay doonayn! NOTHING IS HIDDEN IN THIS WORLD.
Xataa reerkan doonaya inuu goosto ma hayo ama qaddiyad uu caalamka ka iibiyo oo macquul. MARKII HORE WAXAN DHIHI JIRNAY WAA NALA XASUUQAY OO KOONFUR BAA NA LAYSAY LAAKIIN TAASI BEENOWDAY WAAYO CIIDANKA DOWLADDII SIYAAD BARRE QABIIL WALBA WAA KU JIRIN XATAA ISAAQ BAA KA BUUXAY ISLA MARKAANA MA JIRIN QABIIL AMA MALEESHIYO BEELEED DOWLADDA RAACSAN OO SOO WEERARTAY ISAAQ AAN KA AHAYN DHULBAHANTE, WARSANGELI, IYO GEDABURSI. KUWAASINA WAA SOMALILAND! Markaa qaddiyaddaas waa beenowday oo waxa lagu odhanayaa haddaad ogoshay kuwii ku laayey maxaad u diidaysaan kuwa aan waxba ku yeelin! Markaa sheekadu waa BACK TO SQUARE ONE. YACNI, MA JIRO ,MOOTIFKA GOOSASHO AAN KA AHAYN QABYAALAD!