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Noble Travel Agency Gets Ethiopian Airlines Contract

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Hargeisa, 29 June 2009 (Somalilandcurrent)— Ethiopian Airlines has officially delegated Noble Travel Agency to carry out their flight bookings in Somaliland. The agency will have exclusive access to Ethiopian Airlines 1.95 million passenger database and cliets would be able to make bookings with them as well as Ethiopian Airlines affiliated carriers.

Since the suicide attacks in Somaliland in October last year, the Ethiopian Airline’s office was closed and its flights has been suspended due to security concerns. A number of times, there were reports suggesting that the carrier might start resuming its flights via Berbera airport – however, it was not to be.

Speaking to Somalilandpress, the manager of Noble Travel Agency, Mr Abdiqafar Mohamoud Isse said the agency was established in 2006 and has been growing ever since. After the Ethiopian airlines suspended its operations in Somaliland, they have been seeking other alternatives in order to continue their business in the country.

In early March of this year, the Ethiopian carrier invited three traveling agencies from Somaliland to it’s head office in Addis Ababa for contracting bid. Noble Travel Agency was selected as the official winner on the 27th of April – the other two bidders were  Olympic Travel Agency and Hargeisa National Travel & Tourism Agency (HNTTA). Mr Abdiqafar, said his agency was selected because of their extensive experience in the field and connections with other carriers such as Xoriyo, Zuhura, Cosob and Daallo airlines.

Ethiopian Airlines has not officially annouced when it will resume it’s flights to Somaliland cities but Addis-Hargeisa travelers can make bookings with Noble Travel Agency, they will be able to connect them with any of the following carriers Air Ethiopia, Xorriyo, Zuhura and Daallo Airlines. Noble Travel plans to lauch their online services soon.

Ethiopian Art Shines In Somaliland

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Hargeisa, Jun 29, 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) — World refugee day took place in Somaliland on June 20th at the Ethiopian refugee center. The celebration proceedings were opened by Somaliland Vice Minister of Resettlement, Mr Abdilhamid Garad who said, “I am happy to be with you on this occasion, this is not the first time I participate in these festivities, I have taken part in your celebrations on two previous occasions and I am hoping it will be as interesting and wonderful as the last.”

Ministers, officials from UNHCR and other international NGOs as well as ordinary citizens enjoyed songs, dances and cuisines by Ethiopia’s various ethnic groups who reside in Somaliland.

The head of UNHCR, Mr Abdoulaye Barry, gave a long speech in which he talked among other things about what the UNHCR does to help the refugees. He also revealed that the UNHCR has appealed to other countries to accept the refugees in Somalialnd in their own countries.
Certificates were awarded to number of winners from competitions in  tennis and basketball games.

A Large number of refugees from Ethiopia live in Somaliland mainly from the Oromo ethnic group. Many of these groups bring with them rich art from Ethiopia’s diverse culture including hand-crafted, handwoven baskets with vibrant colors of rust, hunter green, cobalt blue, and golden yellow. The Harari women are among the best known for their common-looking grass baskets.

 

Somaliland appeals to international community for urgent emergency livelihood assistance

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Children receive a meal at a school through the World Food Programme (WFP) in the drought-hit Baligubadle village near Hargeisa, the capital city of Somaliland, in this handout picture provided by The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on March 15, 2017.
Children receive a meal at a school through the World Food Programme (WFP) in the drought-hit Baligubadle village near Hargeisa, the capital city of Somaliland, in this handout picture provided by The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on March 15, 2017.

Somaliland: press Release Urgent Emergency Humanitarian Assistant
The Vice President
To: All International Agancies And Organizations

Since The Year Of 2007. The “Dayr” and “Gu” rains in Somaliland were below normal rainfall (Deyr 07/08, Gu 08, and Deyr 08/09) and this year’s “Gu” was poor.

As a result, poor pasture, scarcity of water, food and waakened human animal health were experienced. Reports coming from pastoralists are predicting a serious, but looming famine.

According to fewnsnet. The cumulative effects of drought have resulted in a decline in reproduction rates and re-stocking for all species. Moreover, due to poor livestock body conditions, the number of saleable animals in local markets has been declining. It is predicted that the export figures for the current year could drop further. The drought also affects a significant number of urban households whose income and food source are strongly linked to livestock marketing and trade.

The livelihoods of pastoralists are further aggravated by severe food shortages caused by global food inflation and by continuing locust invasions to vegetations where short rains were reported during the “Gu” season of this year.
All the six regions of Somaliland are affected by the drought, and 40% of the estimated populations of 3.5 Millin of Somaliland are affected. That equals to 1.4 million people.

Given the worsening livelihood situation, as well as the deteriorating human and animal health as a result of food shortages, water and lack of fodder for animals, predictions for serious humanitarian catastrophe seem to be imminent that require to be averted.

The government of Somaliland, therefore, appeals to the international community for urgent emergency livelihood assistance to avert severe food shortages and hunger. Moreover, assistance and support to urgent water trucking, rehabilitation of boreholes as well as rehabilitation and distilling of boreholes and dams, and the supplies of necessary medications for affected human and livestock populations will be paramount to avoid break-outs of disease epidemics. Nutritional support to the weak and sick will be also necessary.

The situation is unusual and, therefore, requires quick, rapid, and unusual responses from the international community to deliver humanitarian assistance and supplies.

H.E. Ahmed Yusuf Yassin
Vice President of the Republic of Somaliland and
Chairperson of the National Disaster Management Committee.

 

Somali envoy says situation is very severe, calls for intervention

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Somali’s Ambassador to Kenya Muhamad Ali Nur has said the situation in his country is “very severe” and has consequently appealed for help from the international community.

Speaking during an interview with Kenya’s privately-owned KTN TV at the Somali embassy in the capital, Nairobi, Nur said: “The situation is very severe. We have humanitarian crisis. People are dying daily. People are being displaced, going out of the cities.

“Al-Shabab group who are fighting against the government are not peace-loving people. The are fighting the government. They don’t want peace. The government always welcomed Somali parties and groups to participate in the peace process. Al-Shabab actually – they are the ones who are really indiscriminately killing people. They are the ones responsible for the displacement of people and that is why we have appealed to the international community to enable countries to come and support us. We need nation building” he said in the interview.

“The hospitals are very overwhelmed with injured people, kids especially, young women who are really injured by the shelling of these Al-Shabab groups who are shelling indiscriminately to civilian people”. he added.

Responding to a question as to whether a military intervention was now necessary, he remained evasive saying, “I think apart from that, Somalia needs capacity building. The Somali forces need to be helped. We have now AMISOM [AU Mission to Somalia] troops who are helping peacekeeping forces in Somalia, but on top of that I think the international community need to reassess, re-evaluate, re-help, help again, the Somali forces who will be able to bring peace and stability to Somalia”.

He was asked whether the recent US arms shipment would be of any help. His response:

“I think it will. I think the transitional federal government is a legitimate government and the US is a friendly country who came to help of the plea that we have asked to help us. Well, as we all know that Al-Shabab have been assisted by other countries who do not want peace. For example, Al-Shabab, have been getting assistance by weapons and ammunition from Eritrea, and that is a well-known fact. I think we welcome the assistance we are receiving from the USA.”

He said his government had warned both Kenya and Ethiopia to beef up security along their borders with Somalia. “Some of the border sides in Somalia, for example in Kenya and Ethiopia, we have some Al-Shabab forces around that area. And we have told the Kenya government and the Ethiopian governments to beef up the borders so that foreign fighters or the Al-Shabab fighters will not enter into Kenya and destabilize Kenya”.

By Abdinasir Mohamed

Mogadishu-Somalia

What to Do With Somalia and Somaliland ?

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Washington, 28 June 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) — The Problems plaguing Somalia show no sign of abating in the near future.

It seems that every other day there has been a Bomb Explosion in Mogadishu killing dozens of people or requests made by the Transitional Government for Assistance have been falling on Deaf Ears.

Is there any hope for the Horn of Africa?

For Almost 20 years Somalia has been in a State of Anarchy. Two Previous Attempts by the United Nations to restore a functioning Government have failed and currently a third attempt is not promising.

Piracy has been a Major Concern amongst the International Community as the Gulf of Aden is a Chokepoint amongst the Shipping Lanes of the World.

Islamic Militants who have been linked to both Al-Qaida and Eritrea have been battling Government Forces in and around the Capital Mogadishu. And in recent day days in a High Profile Incident 4 thieves suffered Cross Amputation for their Crimes.

As a result of the latest fighting 250 people have reportedly been killed and 170,000 have been displaced. The US Government has seen fit to send 10 tons of Arms to support the Somali Government.

The Crisis in Somalia seems to be getting worse.

In the near future a Conference will be held in Washington, DC regarding the Future of Somalia.

What is interesting is for the First Time Somaliland will be asked to attend. However they will not attend due to the fact that they have been invited as a Province of Somalia not as an Independent State which they claim to be.

In another Interesting Fact Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti were not invited to take part in the Washington Conference.

For Several Years now the Somaliland Region has been attempting to have the Independent Community state that they are a Country. In 1998 the Somali Government tried to prevent the region from seceding by Force but was unsuccessful.

After a Meeting with US Officals at the Embassy in Nairobi the Somaliland leadership decided not to attend because their concerns would not be on the Agenda. That is a Legitimate Concern.

The Leaders in Hargeysa don’t want to be lumped into a Solution that may end up being a detriment to Somaliland. After all the Region will be announcing which companies were able to purchase Gas and Oil Exploration contracts this fall. The region does not have a problem with Piracy either.

In the Long Run the US may be making an Error by not increasing contacts with Hargeysa. On this note the Obama Administration deserves some praise. Unlike Previous Administrations they have been talking to Somaliland.

Source: Confused Eagle

Why we are not orienting social change thoughts?

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Why we are not orienting social change thoughts?

Our early history we were rural society and moving towards where rain falls after a period we immediately change urban society although some remain their stage we changes our camels to cars and so on, as we passing these social change steps we suddenly stopped un-expected stage that some pessimistic believe this phase is hard to pass easily, but if we ask ourselves can our society ready to make change or reached maturity period or is there factors of social change all these question I believe we can’t find reliable answers because the fundamental of our society or lifestyle broke early and attachment needs more orienting steps.

Orienting social change needs attention mass media but unfortunately our mass media didn’t interest these main issues I mean changing our society civilized people productive society and make the society busy for developing issues and also change their way of thinking and my knowledge our society they are victimized all changes regardless to our faith, culture, and main example is the Diaspora in western countries according to a survey that I made personal in our media I didn’t find any program that orient social change I think there is no awareness or importance of this vital issue  although some radio whose opened recently claim that they operate peace and development issues but I think the measure has been lost, there measurement is based on senseless so we need these standards to change immediately.

The human institution or non-governmental organizations that operate inside Somalia also didn’t focus social evolution although they claim that their function is human aid but the main thing that you can aid for human being is to change and betterment for their life and I believe that mass media and humanitarian organizations can play a vital role for this important program and adore and realize his value because if we didn’t care our society it’s clear that they will remain this hard stage for long time.

How we can change our society?

There is several steps we can orient our society to lead progressive social change and these steps are:-

  1. Build community based on their behavior respect in each other.
  2. Change the attitude, (not leaving our value) behavior I mean assault behavior we adapted, political system.
  3. Orienting accountability for the all national resource and public sectors such as roads, airport, and universities and so on.
  4. Solutions for social problems determining the core of the problem.
  5. Understanding well practicing democracy and free speeches and mutual respect in all fields.

Because progressive social change involves making significant changes on a systemic level, conflict with those who hold power is often inevitable.  The power that social change organizations bring to the table is their ability to organize, to educate and to mobilize.
Unless take these process we can’t beseech he edge of the social change or the sense of change so I adjure our society to bring social feeling about evolution process and also adjure for this stage all the influential individuals to focus for their ability and feel responsibility about their society.

Finally I believe if these processes take carefully we became progressive social and also we can stop thinking useless issue.

By Saaid Omar Ahmed Dhuhulow
Khartoum-Sudan
email
qaroof22@hotmail.com
tell +249923374457

 

Somaliland: Does Temporary recognition Will Serve for All Interests?

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Hargeisa, 27 June 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) – Somaliland scored 4.5 in the numerical index rating, with 1 representing the most respect and 7 the least respect; ranked Somaliland as the 144th world’s political and civil rights-respecting country out of 208 countries (193 recognized and 15 yet to be recognized countries); which further indicated that Somaliland has more political rights and civil liberties, than 64 countries, including China, Russia, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia according to the Washington based Freedom House Organization’s 2007.

Somaliland peace-making and democratization, and the relatively peaceful neighboring Puntland State of Somalia are enough to approve of the hypothesis of that building peace through people not for the people is more successful than parachuting Somali government established in Nairobi, Impeghatti, Djibouti, Arta, Cairo, Sana, etc.

Thanks to traditional elders, the homegrown efforts not only manage the peace and security in Somaliland but also the judicial functions as a prevention measure. According to the Hargeisa based Research and Training Center (RTC), 65% of Somaliland settlements rely on community elders in their peace, security and justice management. In addition, two third of the cases reached at the prosecution offices withdrawn their cases to civil mediation; which accumulates the traditional elders’ peace, security, and justice management burden to 77.5%.

Unexpectedly, the supposed appreciation and reward from other Somalis and the international community to the Somaliland is yet to be materialized. Instead, all the fifteen international community’s Somali reconciliation attempts and the self-pro-claimed Somali efforts of setting Somali governments, including internationally unrecognized late General Aideed’s government, the Union of Islamic Courts defeated by the Ethiopian Military intervention with the US logistic support, and the Al-shabab Al-Mujahedeen Islamist Movement, which currently controlled most of Southern Somalia emphasized to establish a Mogadishu based (suppose to be based) Somali governments; as if Somalia is in Mogadishu; while Mogadishu is in Somalia.

 

“Contrary to the western belief, Somaliland ’s successful multi-party elections have proved that the African tradition, Islamic faith and modern democracy are compatible

 

Al-shabab Al-Mujahedeen publically declare that they masterminded the three suicidal explosions in Hargeisa on October, 2008 as retributive action against the pro-western and pro-Ethiopian Somaliland is schemer to revenge from the extradition of Anti-Ethiopia ONLF members or supporters from Somaliland to Ethiopia , since Ethiopia is common enemy for ONLF and Al-shabab.

Contrary to the expectation, the international community graded Somaliland down to UN Security Level Four, which could discourage development and investment. In the gatherings, Somalilanders asked questions to each other- whether such security downgrading decision is rewarding to Al-shabab, and inviting to carry our more attacks or not? On September 11, 2001; three planes were crashed into buildings in New York, just couple of yards away from the United Nations headquarter, and no one down graded the USA security level; why Somaliland? This will be a witness for Islamist hardliner’s claim of that the Western World is not looking a democracy but they are using as proxy hand to intervene other’s affairs.

The currently widespread legitimate debate among Somalilanders is- ‘what did they benefited from supporting the Western World in the war against the international terrorist’, Djibouti in the war against Eritrea, Ethiopia in the war against ONLF, and the Red Sea facing countries in the war against the sea pirate.

The homegrown Somaliland peace and democracy needs to be rewarded, at least by offering temporary recognition to both Somaliland and Somalia with condition of attending negotiation to agree, either as two separate states or into one Somalia within that period, as a carrot and stick policy.

Any other attempt is unproductive, if not counterproductive, and could create a conducive environment for Al-shabab Al-Mujahedeen’s potential conquer of all Somali territories, including Djibouti, and the Somali regions of Ethiopia and Kenya.

Somaliland the home of 3.5 million persons, one third of the population of the collapsed Somalia , is a former British colony in the Horn of Africa that merged in 1960 with the Italian colony of Somalia to form the independent republic of Somalia .

When Somalia disintegrated into fiefdoms controlled by iron-fisted warlords in the early 1990s, Somaliland broke away and set up its own administrational institutions, including executive, legislative and judicial bodies, and currency.

Somalilanders tried to build a new state through shirweyne (conference in Somali) under the acacia trees that people in this country can understand and identify with, instead of the extravagance five-star hotels in the neighboring or concerned African and Arab cities, where many failing reconciliations held.

In this basically classless society, the right to choose one’s leaders freely and hold them accountable was practiced for centuries or perhaps for millenniums. The traditional elders controlled political system took the major decisions by consensus and selected government leaders through an electoral college consisting members representing clans during the decade of 1991-2000. Since then, the challenge has been how to transfer the clan-based system to a modern democratic system.

Opportunely, a gradual democratization process took place, where 2001 constitutional referendum, municipal elections, presidential, and House of Representatives election where held in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005, respectively; and the second term presidential and municipal elections are planned September and December 2009, respectively.

Seventy-six International observers from 15 countries including South Africa , Britain, Canada , New Zealand , the United States , Zimbabwe , Sweden , Finland and other EU members reported in their overall assessment that besides lack of enough resources and higher illiteracy of the voters, free and fair elections have been conducted in Somaliland .

Ahmed Mohamed Diriye (Toorno),
ahmedmdiriye@yahoo.com,
Hargeisa

Somaliland Central Bank Opens First Branch In Sool

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central bank
central bank

Las Anod, June 27, 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) — The Central Bank of Somaliland (CBS) opened its first branch in Las Anod, the regional capital of Sool on Friday. The branch will introduce Somaliland currency [Somaliland Shilling] to the region and will carry out all monetary policies, financial research, note issuance and anti-money laundering as well as general services of a commercial bank and exchange.

Las anod historically used Somali Shilling but since coming under Somaliland’s control in November 2007, the Somaliland government has built a number of institutions.

Currently, there are no foreign exchange or commercial banks in the city.

Central Bank of Somaliland governor Mr. Abdirahman Mohamed inaugurated the new branch also present for the opening ceremony were the governor of Sool, Mr Ali Mahamoud (Ali Sandule), traditional leader, Mr Adan Ali Duale, Mayor of Las Anod, Mr Anbashe Aw-Dahir and a large crowd from the public.

The Central Bank of Somaliland was established in 1994 after a bloody war with neighbouring Somalia – the bank has a governor, general director and five members of which three members are prominent private businessmen in its board of directors.

The Somaliland currency consists of the following denominations 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 500 Shilling. Foreign exchange branches are usually located in regional airports such as Egal International Airport [Hargeisa], Borama airport and so on.

Ethiopian-American Lawyer on Conflicts Along the Nile

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The Nile River during sunset in Luxor, Egypt
The Nile River during sunset in Luxor, Egypt

A scorpion once tried to cross the river Nile. He approached several animals, asking if he could ride on their backs. None of them dared trust him, and they all refused.Finally, an old sheep agreed because the scorpion said that if he strung the sheep during the crossing, they would both die.

In the middle of the river, the scorpion struck, and as they both sank beneath the waves, the sheep cried, “Why?!”

The scorpion said, “I could not do anything else. I am a scorpion!”

Houston, June 27 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) — Fasil Amdetsion is an attorney from Ethiopia who speaks in riddles. With an undergraduate degree from Yale in both history and international studies, and a law degree from Harvard, he is a thinker.

Working with prestigious New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, he is also a do-er.

One of the things Fasil has done recently is analyzed the legal, geopolitical, and historical dimensions of the longstanding dispute over the Nile. He has followed the course of this river from an early age, growing up in the Nile River basin.

 The White Nile begins at Lake Victoria and the Blue Nile begins at Lake Tana.
The White Nile begins at Lake Victoria and the Blue Nile begins at Lake Tana.

Fasil’s task is to get people outside the region to see trouble on the horizon. He believes there is significant chance of a “water war” along the Nile basin. The largest question is how volatile it will be — and whether it is preventable.

Both necessary and finite, water plays a vital role in food and energy production, modern transportation, waste disposal, industrial development, and of course health. Water gave rise to civilization 7,000 years ago — and sustains it still.

Fasil Amdetsion, Esq. studied at Harvard and Yale
Fasil Amdetsion, Esq. studied at Harvard and Yale

Because of its limited supply, Fasil understands water’s crucial importance to governments and their people. When water is unevenly distributed, or when it is in needed more than ever as nations develop, conflicts are sure to arise.

With water’s myriad uses and limited nature, coupled with the fact that it is the quintessential “trans-boundary” resource, it is difficult for nations to agree upon its distribution and use.

The Nile River between Luxor and Aswan, Egypt.
The Nile River between Luxor and Aswan, Egypt.

It is unsurprising, Fasil notes, that the English word “rival” is derived from the Latin word rivalis, a term denoting persons who live on opposite banks of a river used for irrigation.

nile1

Fasil thinks the Nile basin will be the most likely site of a future “water war” because the Nile embodies “all the challenges that transnational management of fresh water could possibly present.” The Nile would seem to be a water war waiting to happen.

The Nile is long — over 4,000 miles long. Two countries sharing anything often equates war. The Nile is shared by ten countries, and flows through some of the most water-deprived parts of the world.

The region’s population is growing at 3% a year and is projected to reach 859 million in 2025 (up from 245 million in 1990) is likely to make water even more scarce along the river basin.

One problem is that Sudan and Egypt — two comparatively non-contributories — monopolize the use of the Nile. They claim it all — and rely on colonial-era treaties to do so.

In recent years, nations up-river have become more assertive of their rights. Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia are among the countries that have begun to construct projects on the Nile.

Despite the occasional conciliatory gesture, however, relations between the Nile’s upriver nations have been dominated by suspicion and, at times, raw belligerence.

In a sense, Fasil argues, Nile riparian states are behaving like the proverbial scorpion.

Although these countries have much to gain from cooperation, they have rigidly pursued divergent paths in a manner that may ultimately be self-destructive if environmental and population pressures continue to mount — which they will.

Fasil criticizes current legal frameworks and political arrangements governing the Nile’s use. He is also critical of a status quo which does not allow several countries to make use of the Nile for their own development.

Egypt receives the entirety of the Nile’s bounties from others but is allocated 75% of the Nile’s waters, while Ethiopia, from which 85% of the Nile flows, makes almost no use of the river.

Because of the enormity of interests these two states have at stake, they have been most vocal in asserting claims and counterclaims that represent competing upper and lower riparian visions for the Nile’s future utilization

Specifically, Fasil attempts to overcome the quandary the up-river states find themselves in. He hopes to influence a more comprehensive approach by grappling with environmental challenges, economic issues, populist and nationalist imaginations that influence politics, security interests, and legal arguments.

Note (Somalilandpress): Key facts – ETHIOPIA’S demographic trends

  • Population: 79 million (2005), 101 million (2015)
  • People living in urban (towns): 16% (2005), 19.1% (2015) 
  • Population using an improved water source 23% (1990), 22% (2004)
  • Population without electricity: 60.8 million
  • Hydro, solar, wind and geothermal power (% of total primary energy supply), 1.1% (2005)
  • Employment in agriculture (% of total employment), 93% (1996-2005)

Note (Somalilandpress): Key facts – EGYPT’S demographic trends

  • Population: 72.8 million (2005), 86.2 million (2015)
  • People living in urban (towns): 42.8% (2005), 45.4% (2015) 
  • Population using an improved water source 94% (1990), 98% (2004)
  • Population without electricity: 1.5 million
  • Hydro, solar, wind and geothermal power (% of total primary energy supply), 1.9% (2005)
  • Employment in agriculture (% of total employment), 30% (1996-2005)

Fasil’s thoughts on this subject are available in a law journal article published by the University of Texas School of Law, Texas International Law Journal, Fall 2009, “Scrutinizing the Scorpion Problematique: Arguments in Favor of the Continued Relevance of International Law and a Multidisciplinary Approach to Resolving the Nile Dispute.”

By Jim Luce (www.jimluce.com) writes and speaks on Thought Leaders and Global Citizens.

Sources: The Huffington Post [published: May 25, 2009], Human Development Report (statistics), Somalilandpress (highlights stats)

Somalia: Militant Islamists Try to Draw Kenya Into a Trap

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Al-Shabaab’s first attack on Kenyan soil was in 2008. Since then the Kenyan government has responded with force. United Nations Photo/Flickr
Al-Shabaab’s first attack on Kenyan soil was in 2008. Since then the Kenyan government has responded with force. United Nations Photo/Flickr

Hargeisa, 27 June 2009 (Somalilandcurrent) – As Somalia’s transitional government fights for its existence and the region’s governments debate how to respond, guest columnist Daniela Kroslak argues strongly against another foreign military incursion. Instead what is needed, she writes, is more international investment in the political process aimed at re-orienting and broadening reconciliation efforts already under way.

Kenyan media have been abuzz in recent days with speculation that Nairobi and its allies in the region could be planning a military operation to prop up the fragile Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu, which is under siege from militant Islamist factions led by Al-Shabaab.

Official rhetoric against the Somali Islamists has been hardening: Nairobi increasingly fears the TFG could collapse unless the international community provides it with additional troops to hold its ground.

The deadly suicide bombing in Beledweyne last week that killed the TFG’s security minister, Omar Hashi – a key figure in the regime’s military counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab – came as another shocking reminder of the group’s capacity to undermine the interim government. In a sense, the TFG is fighting for its very survival. Resurgent militant Islamist groups are clearly bent on overthrowing the current regime. President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed has imposed a state of emergency to deal with these threats.

Despite the gravity of the current situation, the calls for foreign military intervention in Somalia are ill-advised. The TFG and its supporters have circulated dire warnings of a high number of foreign jihadi combatants in order to create panic about Somalia being on the verge of becoming another Afghanistan, the new den of international Al-Qaeda militants. This threat is supposed to also justify a foreign intervention.

Under Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the former leader of the Islamic Courts Union who was elected president last February, the TFG has regained some legitimacy and holds potentially valuable keys to a political settlement. It is more representative of central and southern Somalia’s populations and can probably articulate an Islamic vision for Somalia which will rally the support of its majority, contrary to the jihadists whose practice of Islam is foreign to the country.

Yet external military intervention is not the way forward.

Since the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime in 1991, there have been several foreign incursions. Every single one of them exacerbated the conflict by increasing radicalisation and political polarisation. They reduced chances for political dialogue and helped militant groups to recruit. Al-Shabaab has grown in strength over the last two years largely because it used Ethiopia’s intervention and the United States’ bombing campaign to whip up nationalism and rally the clans around its banner.

A Kenyan intervention force — alone or as part of a force by the regional Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) — would only lead to the same result. In fact, Al-Shabaab, currently under siege politically, desperately wants such an intervention for those very reasons. The movement may be militarily triumphant, but its political message is increasingly challenged in south and central Somalia.

Militant Islamist factions in Somalia are taunting Kenya into a military intervention in the same way they taunted Ethiopia in 2006. Kenya should be wary of falling into the same trap.

Another possible threat which Kenya needs to weigh is the direct security implications stemming from such an intervention. Al-Shabaab’s threat to strike Kenya, which could reasonably be dismissed as bravado, may become real. Al-Shabaab has honed its terror tactics and skills in recent years and is now by far the deadliest guerilla movement operating in the Horn.

Kenya should not get sucked into the Somalia conflict but concentrate on securing its borders and actively supporting its resolution.

What is needed today is more international investment in the political process aimed at re-orienting and broadening the United Nations-sponsored reconciliation efforts known as the “Djibouti process” to ensure as many militants and radicals as possible are reached and the necessary concessions made to ensure their buy-in.

Reaching out to moderates is not enough: peace will have to be made between Somalia’s bitter enemies. This will be difficult, but it is not altogether impossible, as some suggest, and many channels of communications transit through Nairobi.

In the short run, rather than direct military intervention, efforts should concentrate on bolstering the TFG’s military capacity through additional training, funding and the provision of new military equipment as part of an overall strategy to restore the balance of forces conducive to political negotiations.

The African Union peacekeeping mission should not become a direct party to the fighting but should be used only to secure strategic points essential to the reinforcement of the TFG. No foreign army should fight the Somalis’ war; instead the TFG must be enabled to fight its own fight. This is what many Somali officials actually believe will be effective.

Nairobi’s traditional pragmatist tendencies and the practice of using dialogue to resolve problems have not lost their currency. In fact, despite the belligerent tone of some official Somali declarations, provincial and local administration leaders are engaged with Al-Shabaab in a dialogue to resolve the problems of banditry, armed car-jacking and inter-clan tensions along Kenya’s long border with Somalia, and they have effectively succeeded in managing the situation over the past year.

Now is not the time to beat the drums of a new regional invasion of Somalia but to invest in the political process that will provide an end to its decade long conflict.

Daniela Kroslak in allAfrica