Home Blog Page 783

An Eye on Somaliland Kulmiye Political Party’s Final Standoff

0

IMG_0007 (2)Somaliland political landscape is about to take a drastic shift and shape, as Kulmiye the current ruling political party braces to advance into a final standoff, of nominating its presidential candidate for the upcoming presidential elections.

Kulmiye party barely managed to wrap up its national party convention, without any change to its leadership. In this convention Kulmiye artistically if not deceptively dodged the bullet of disarray, after engaging in aggressive arm-twisting and behind the scene deals. Eventually the party came out triumphantly through this phase, and with not a single challenge to the incumbent stalwarts. The convention apparently winded-up with maintenance of the status quo.

Following the conclusion of the convention and even before the dust settled, and the excited political junkies could enliven the public with vicarious analysis and predictions, came out the announcement by the Kulmiye chairman Mr. Muse Bihi, saying come rain or shine he is resolved to run for the presidential nomination on a Kulmiye ticket. Within no time followed a counter announcement by the Kulmiye government information minister stating that due to public demand, the current president is for sure going to run for a second term as granted by the law.

While the many pundits in the Somali peninsula politics were caught little unaware in the timing of these announcements, the fact remains that if all comes to pass and  with all seriousness political swords are drawn, there is no doubt that political landscape in this part of the world will take a dramatic shift.

 I meant to say with all seriousness, as it seems the Kulmiye pro incumbency political architects have  many a times proved to be proactively tactful in the art of taming spoilers of their well thought plots. The case of Hassan Gaafadhi vs Mohamed Kaahin is enough to shade some doubts in the seriousness of the brewing confrontations.

 While Somali politics and clan alliances are known to be inextricably entwined, in this particular case both the incumbent president and the ambitious party chairman, are in between a rock and a hard place. For one the incumbent head of state, with his incumbency advantage can easily dismiss the challenge and set the stage for the nomination. With the situational advantage the election results would play to his favor. However without the blessings of Chairman Musa. President Silaanyo would have to employ a genius tribal calculus, if at all to maintain or at least free his fate from the traditional Gabiley, Caynabo alliance which is a Kulmiye essential life support for the upcoming general election

Likewise, Chairman Musa is at a critical stage and at a point of no return. With all due respect I see Musa’s situation the same as choosing between the devil and the deep blue see. If Musa goes ahead and challenge the incumbency he surely going to lose, on the other hand if he swallows the pride and let the incumbency have its way, he is likely going to lose the respect and trust from his Gabiley base, not mentioning that his chairmanship position would also be insignificant and vulnerable as well. The final Option for Musa is to jump the Kulmiye ship for one of the other two existing political parties. If for once Musa would have to decide to throw his weight behind his kin, Jamal Ali Hussein of the opposition UCID party, then the unsettled grey area within UCID party needs to be cleared first. This grey area lies with the pioneering founder of UCID Engineer Feisal Warabe, not yet officially signing off the candidacy torch to the youthful intellect. Even if it happens that Jamal would be the candidate, still the Berbera, Gabiley alliance is not as productive and potent enough of a formula, fitting the equation to stir the needed clan calculus to the opposition favor

The other option yet unlikely choice, would be for Musa to side with “Waddani” the last of the political parties, headed by none other than Abdirahman Cirro. This is one move that may account to be a scary situation for the incumbency squad, and would surely cost Silaanyo camp many sleepless nights. It’s unlikely because the option is burdened with lots of uneasiness for Musa. Importantly the lingering shadows of the memorable internal skirmishes in the early periods, after Somaliland declared to dissolve the ill-fated union with Somalia. This was in the early period of the late Ibrahim Egaal administration. In the fracas Musa took a giant role in the crushing of the rebellion led by the Oodweyne block, who are currently solidly behind one of their own, Mr. Abdirahman Cirro of the Waddani political party and at the same time incumbent speaker of the parliament. The issue here is that Musa Bihi was heard employing the Somali quote that goes “Anigoo wax dili Kara duco qaadan maayo”. Albeit the conundrums, Kulmiye incumbency with its all Machiavellian technique, needs to bear in mind the famous Somali adage “Rag ciil, Cadaabta ka dooray, at times desperate situations warrants unpredictable solutions.

If at all Chairman Muse manages to join the Waddani ship and convince his base to recalibrate the traditional alliance of Gabiley, Caynabo alliance to Gabiley, Oodweyne alliance the political landscape is sure to take a dramatic shift in a big way. The equation may look something like this.

This is just but my opinion I might be dead wrong in my analysis but all in all I would like to leave the following quote for Chairman Musa to ponder.

 There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”

By, Soren Kierkegaard

Abdirahman Dhunjoog , MN, USA

Africa:#SaveAbdullah: Egyptians speak out for detained Al Jazeera journalists

0

maxresdefault

• #SaveAbdullah campaign launched to hospitalize and save life of hunger striking journalist

• Human rights activist calls for release

 TV anchor says the case is doing harm to Egypt

Prominent Egyptians have begun to call for the release of Al Jazeera’s journalists detained in their country.

The interventions come as Abdullah Elshamy was moved by the Egyptian authorities to an unknown location. Earlier his lawyer had asked the authorities to transfer him to hospital within 48 hours amid growing concerns for his life. He has been on hunger strike since 21 January 2014.

Hoda AbdelMoneim, head of AlHorreya Observatory for Detainees Rights, said today, “Abdullah Elshamy is asking for his rights in a fair trial. He is detained unlawfully and no charges have been filed against him, although Article 10 of the Declaration of Human Rights states that every individual has the right to be submitted to a fair independent court.”

She also urged civil society, in a press release today, to pressure for the release of Elshamy to save his life after he exceeded 110 days of hunger strike.

Tests on Elshamy’s blood and urine conducted in a private laboratory have indicated his life is in serious danger. Medical experts state that he is now suffering kidney dysfunction, severe anemia and low red blood cell count.

After the results, his family tweeted: “Put @abdallahelshamy in your prayers. He’s between God’s hands and could lose his life anytime.”

“Abdullah is running out of time. We demand that he is admitted to an independent hospital immediately. With experts saying he may die in few days, every journalist, every organization and every human has to do something to save this 26-year-old journalist,” said Al Jazeera spokesperson Osama Saeed.

Al Jazeera English’s detained trio are meanwhile due back in court on Thursday, 15 May 2014. In recent days, TV presenter Amr Adeeb called for the release of Al Jazeera’s staff, saying that press freedoms have to be upheld. Adeeb hosts a daily talk show “Al Qahera Al Youm” (Cairo Today) on the “Al Youm” (Today) channel. Speaking live on his show, he said, “I am against jailing any journalist based on his work, regardless of what he reports. And this case is causing us embarrassment globally. In every interview with any Egyptian official on a foreign platform, a question about it is asked. I am totally against this attitude, because if I approve of it, I might be doing some work in Doha and get arrested and can’t say a word. Whatever was being reported and sent by these guys [Al Jazeera’s journalists] – and I know many of you will be against what I am saying, and you also know that I have never been on good terms with Al Jazeera – but there are regulations all over the world: journalists and reporters have immunity, even if you do not like what they report or find it harmful. And if journalists are being jailed because they report in a way that does not appeal to governments, you would find half the journalists of the world in jail!”

For more details on Al Jazeera detained journalists, visit http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/freeajstaff/.

Watch and embed:

Health of Al Jazeera’s Elshamy is failing (1’45): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgZBvA94suI

Pictures show effect of imprisonment on Al Jazeera’s Elshamy (’40): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PctsQbAmjjI

Note to editors

• Family members of the detainees are available for interview. Please contact Al Jazeera PR to arrange.

• Medical tests on Elshamy’s blood and urine had the following results:

S . Creatinine 1.9 mg/dl – Normal Range (0.4 – 1.2)

Blood Urea  82 mg/dl – Normal Range (15 – 45)

Haemoglobin 8.1 mg/dl – Normal Range (11.4 – 14.5)

Platelet count 129.000 / cmm  – Normal Range (150.000 – 450.000)

Red blood cells count 3.1 Mil/cmm  – Normal Range (4.0 – 5.3)

Somaliland:May 18; A Day of Reflection

0

asmahan shekh

By: Asmahan Sheikh Mussa

I dedicate this short piece to all the men and women who lost their lives in the liberation of Somaliland from tyranny. To the brave heroes who perished and to those who are still alive; to those who were injured and those who still suffer from Post Traumatic War Syndrome. We neither hear their names nor do we pause to reflect on the magnitude of their sacrifice as millions enjoy the peace and stability that is synonymous with our Motherland. Today, I salute those who are alive and pray for those suffering and the martyrs.

Once again it is that time of the year. The air is abuzz with excitement and the social media is chattering away; the websites are filled with colourful posters depicting entertainers, local and from abroad. This is the month that the Somaliland flag is most revered. Somalilanders’ Facebook profiles carry the flag, and patriotism is high on everyone’s list. One can’t escape being asked if they are going to the Somaliland “party,” and, if affirmative, followed by “which one”? See, there have been two in Toronto in the past several years and this year is not different. Then, on the day—or rather the night—of May 18, patriots, young and old, congregate in the designated venues and wave the red, green and white flag singing “calanyahow ha dhicin, ha dheeliyin, weligaa dhisnoow.”  How joyous the moment is!  Everyone’s face is light, and the love our people have for their homeland becomes obvious.

This is all good, however, we need to step back from all the hoopla—the music, the beautiful diracs, the lovely venues, the greetings and laughter—and pause to reflect on the magnitude of this day. May 18 should not be about people’s inflated egos, clan/political affiliations, or how many people will attend any given event. It should be about love for the country and for those less fortunate.

On that fateful day on May 18, 1991, those known to the people of Somalia as “qaldaan” took their fate in their hands and reclaimed their hastily given-away independence. On that day, in the city of Burco, the people of the former Northern Somalia spoke with one voice, had one vision, and swore never to be marginalized again. They spoke as a nation under one flag. That same voice, unity, and that same good will, should govern how May 18th is celebrated.  It should reflect on the cohesiveness of the country and should be rejoiced in one venue with one purpose.  Unfortunately, this day has been turned into an egotistical event by two competing groups.  Neither group has the interest of the Motherland at heart.  Each is obsessed with who will put on the grandest show, while the importance of the day is lost in this quest.

As a fellow Somalilander and one who is guilty by association, it is my belief that the schism in the community has damaged our image in this city.  Two posters both boasting “Xaflada Somaliland ee Toronto” adorn walls in areas in the city hostile to the existence of Somaliland.  It is time the elders and the community leaders in this city take this matter into their hands and appoint a new committee for the commemoration of this historic day.  It is too late this year, but, maybe, next year, the community can celebrate in one venue.

This article would be incomplete if I did not call on Somalilanders to remember and support the surviving veterans as well as the orphans and widows.  Many are without the basic necessities of life and the funds raised in these events would fulfil many of their needs.  For history not to repeat itself and to learn from the lessons of history, it is imperative to collect and document all materials pertaining to this significant era.

Asmahan M. Sheikh Mussa

Toronto, Canada

Somaliland:Somalia Offended By Kenya's 'Meddling'

0

somaliland-kenya-150x130

By Adow Mohamed, 12 May 2014

Somalia Ambassador to Kenya Mohamed Ali Nur was recalled for reasons beyond the recent arrest of a diplomat. It was earlier revealed that Ambassador Nur was recalled to Mogadishu last month following the arrest of diplomat Siyad Mohamud Shire in Nairobi.

However, it has now emerged Mogadishu was offended by the latest overtures Nairobi has been making towards Jubaland and Somaliland, the two main self-proclaimed independent states within Somalia “without involving the leadership of the Somalia government”.

Kenya has already named consuls to the two autonomous regions, a move that has reportedly enraged the Hassan Shiekh Mohamud-led government. Somalia’s leadership has always been opposed to the existence of the autonomous regions.

According to Somalia media reports, Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed has written to Kenya “demanding respect”.

However, Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, a Horn of Africa analyst with Southlink Consultants saysKenya’s interest in Mogadishu “is limited”, a scenario that may explain Nairobi’s uneventful response to the withdrawing of the ambassador. “Kenya has its interests largely in Kismayo. Kenya has its soldiers in this region.

The importance of Mogadishu is fast-dwindling, if you ask me,” he says. “Nairobi may not be bothered much about Mogadishu. They have Kismayu under different administration.” He says Kenya has no clear foreign policy on Somalia.

“The two countries have no policy which can be relied on in case of a tiff like this one,” he told the Star. Kenya has appointed Hillary Kyengo as the consul to Kismayu, the capital of Jubaland.

A high-powered delegation led by senior officials from the Foreign Affairs ministry was also sent to Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland to lay the ground for the opening of the consulate.

Efforts to reach Foreign Affairs Secretary Amina Mohamed and PS Karanja Kibicho for comment failed. Other officials declined to comment due to the “sensitivity of the matter”.

On Monday, Ambassador Nur was summoned by a special meeting in Mogadishu to brief the cabinet on the “poor bilateral relations” between the two countries.

In an interview with the Christian Science Monitor, Ambassador Nur suggested that KDF withdraws from Somalia. “There is no cordial relationship between the two countries. I don’t see why the forces should stay in the country in the name of keeping peace,” Nur is quoted as saying.

Abdisamad says Mogadishu cannot order the withdrawal of soldiers under Amisom, but can only sanction the African Union whose mandate KDF in Somalia falls under.

On Monday, more than 100 MPs signed a petition to oust President Mohamud, among other domestic reasons, for “failing to resolve the tainted diplomatic relations with Kenya”.

In the petition, the MPs also want the Somalia embassy in Nairobi closed “due to the persistent mistreatment of Somalis in that country”. Jubaland is led by Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, a former warlord and ex-Ras Kamboni brigade leader. Somaliland is led by President Ahmed Silanyo.

Source: The Star

 

Somaliland:Gadiid Community Call for the Immediate release of Haatuf Duo

0

DSCN6951

By Hassan Ali

Elders, youth, Diaspora, Intellectual and chiefs came together in Hargeisa today to jointly condemn and demand the immediate release of the proprietor of Haatuf and Somaliland times Mr. Yusuf Abdi Gabobe and his Chief Editor Mr. Ahmed Egge a day after a court in Hargeisa remanded the Haatuf duo for seven days.

In a Statement read during the Press conference held at hotel Haraf today by the Gadiid community stated as follows:

“We the Elders, youth, Diaspora, Intellectual and tribal chiefs of the Gadiid Community while respecting and safeguarding the good relations between our community and other communities in Somaliland deplore the nature in which the prosecution used in while trying the Haatuf duo.

The constitution of Somaliland states clearly that Press Law shall be applied in this case contrary to the application of the outdated and general law on this case is contrary to article 130(5) of the Constitution. The article clearly states that the pre-constitution laws are only applicable if they do not conflict individual rights and fundamental freedoms enshrined in the constitution.

The article further stipulates that after promulgation of new laws, the previous laws shall not remain in force. The Gadiid community therefore is concerned by the prosecution intentions to continue to sideline the of the Press Law and the criminalization of the press.

Signed By

1-Mahdi Aadan Xaashi

2-Yuusuf Xuseen Xasan

3-Maxamed Nuur Cabdillaahi

4-Ibraahim X.Axmed Ildab

5-C/laahi Cali Yuusuf (xamaraawi)

6-Mujaahid Maxamed Cabdillaahi Ismaaciil

7-Yuusuf Cali Ducaale

8-Axmed Maxamed Rooble

9-Iid Shabeel Cali

10-Axmed Khaliif Cabdi

11-Axmed Jaamac Faarax

12-Maxamed Axmed Muuse

13- Cabdillaahi Ismaaciil Xasan

14-Oday Yuusuf Caydiid

15-Axmed Cali

16-Shuun Xasan Maxamed

17-Aamina Carab Maxamed

18-Khadra Askar

19-Sahra Maxamed Cali

20-Muna Cabdi Cakala

21-Kowsar Cabdillaahi Yaasiin

22-Foosiya Cabdillaahi Xirsi

23-Sahra Jaamac Tukaale

24-Samsam Quule

25-Ifrax Cabdi Ruush

26-Sahra X.Jaamac

27-Basma Ibrahim Weerar

28-Khadra Maxamed Mooge

29Fahima Maxamed Mooge

30-Sacdiya Maxamed Mooge

31-Hibo Cali Muxumed

32-Safiya Aadan Xaashi

33-Ruun Faarax Maxamed

34-Hoodo Cabdillaahi Xasan

35-Xalimo Cismaan Maxamed

36-Hina Masalle

37-C/risaaq Caqli

38-Axmed Jirde Yuusuf

39-Ismaaciil Yuusuf

40-Mustafe Aadan Cismaan

41-Maxamed Cabdillaahi Diiriye

42-Xuseen Maxamed Rodol

43-Rashiid Cabdi Cali

44-Khaliil Ibraahim Xawaadle

45-Cabdillaahi Gahayr Jaamac

46-Axmed Aadan Cabdi

47- Maxamed Maxamuud Jaamac

48-Cali Muxumed Xirsi

49-Siciid Cumar Xasan

50-Cabdi Cali Mahdi

51- Axmed Ismaaciil Xuseen

52-Xuseen Xasan Aadan

53-Siciid Cali Salaan

54-Dr Yaasiin Cabdi Cismaan

55-Dr Fahad Cumar Carte

56-Dr Najiib Axmed Shunuuf

57-Jiir Cali Madoobe

58-C/kariim Cabdillaahi Xaashi

59-Maxamed Aw-cali

http://www.berberanews.com/dhagayso-cuqaal-cambaareeyay-xadhiga-masuuliyiinta-wargeyska-haatuf/

Somaliland:Sterling Energy confirms Odewayne farmin

StockMarketWire.com – Sterling Energy said completion has occurred under the Farmout Agreement with Jacka Resources Somaliland Ltd for the acquisition of an additional 15% interest in the Production Sharing Contract for the Odewayne Block, located onshore Republic of Somaliland.

The holders of the PSC are now:

– Genel Energy Somaliland Limited (Operator) – 50%

– Sterling Energy (East Africa) Limited – 40%

– Petrosoma Limited – 10%

At 8:03am: [LON:SEY] Sterling Energy PLC share price was +0.63p at 30.13p

Sources :StockMarketWire

.

 

.

 

Of Elections and Diapers in Ethiopia in 2015

0

unnamed

By Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam

Whether the people of Ethiopia are better off in 2014 than they were in 2010 or in 2005 is the sole question that should be decided in the 2015 parliamentary “election”. If they are not, the people should vote to change diapers. After all, “politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.”  Aarrgh! the thought of poor Ethiopia wearing the same diapers for another 5 years, for a total of 25 years!

In June 2010, I wrote a commentary lamenting the ludicrous 99.6 percent “electoral victory” of the “EPDRF” (“Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front”) , the late Meles Zenawi’s party. In a self-congratulatory victory speech, Meles declared that preposterous election “recognized the efforts of the EPRDF and unequivocally sent a clear message to the opposition parties in our country.” He was referring to the 79 officially registered opposition political “parties” in Ethiopia which were unable to muster even one-half percent collectively in 2010.

The 2010 European Union Election Observation Mission Ethiopia made the understatement of the decade when it observed, “The electoral process fell short of certain international commitments, notably regarding the transparency of the process and the lack of a level playing field for all contesting parties.”  The 60-person African Union (AU) observer team led by former Botswana president Ketumile Masire with a straight face concluded, “the elections were free and fair and the team found no evidence of intimidation and misuse of state resources for ruling party campaigns.” The  White House shedding crocodile tears expressed “concern that international observers found the elections fell short of international commitments.” Ethiopia is wearing the same diapers today.

The ghosts of elections past

In 2010, Meles bulldozed, bribed, bullied and terrorized his way to a 99.6 percent election “victory” . He (mis)used foreign humanitarian and economic aid to buy and extort votes from the rural population. He provided make-work jobs to buy the loyalty of the youth. He (mis)used state resources to mobilize support for his party. He organized a massive surveillance programs and used a network of spies and informants to identify and neutralize his opposition.

When Meles Zenawi prepared for his 99.6 percent electoral victory in 2010, he spoke loudly and carried a big stick. He threatened to prosecute opposition leaders for their allegedly “inflammatory” and “hateful” campaign statements aimed at “inciting violence’. He threatened to jail them if they withdrew from the elections at the last minute and agitated the youth to demonstrate in the streets. After he vanquished his imaginary 78 opponents at the polls, he extended an olive branch to them. They will get his mercy as long as they keep their tails between their legs and licked his boots. “We make this pledge to all the parties who did not succeed in getting the support of the people, during this election, that whether or not you have won seats in the parliament, as long as you respect the will of the people and the country’s Constitution and other laws of the land, we will work by consulting and involving you in all major national issues. We are making this pledge not only because we believe that we should be partners … [but also] you have the right to participate and to be heard.” Meles’ pledges are not worth the breath used to make them.

The Ghost of Meles Zenawi in 2015?

The ghost of Meles Zenawi will hang over the 2015 elections like “pall in the dunnest (dark) smoke of hell”, to paraphrase Shakespeare. Meles was the supreme playwright of stolen and rigged elections. He wrote the script and playbook for rigging and hijacking elections in the bush, long before he held the mantle of power. He was a bit overconfident in 2005 and his party got a thumping; but he learned his lessons well. Never give the real opposition an even break. He jailed wholesale nearly all of the top opposition leaders, independent journalists, human rights advocates and civil society leaders that year.

The overall election mugging strategy for 2015 is the same old one crafted by Meles. Just as Meles wrote the “Growth and Transformation Plan” for the economy, he also wrote the “How To Use Stealth and Hijack the Ethiopian Election Plan” (SHEEP) for politics. The SHEEP plan is based on one simple proposition. “EPDRF” is the ONLY game in town! “EPDRF” is the protector, deliverer and sole guardian of Ethiopia. The “EPDRF” is the ONLY secure pillar of stability, peace, development and progress in Ethiopia.

The SHEEP plan anticipates winning the 2015 election by at least 100 percent. It would be a disgrace and an insult to the memory of Meles to win by anything less! The Plan will work only if the SHEEP shepherds (forgive the pun) manage to hoodwink and corral the various players into their election game.

There is no question that the ruling TPLF (“Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front”) regime, masquerading as “EPDRF”  will do everything in its power to convince the people of Ethiopia and the international loaners and donors that it is the one and ONLY force standing between order and total anarchy in that country. The TPLF will try to convince the people and its foreign bankrollers that without the “EPDRF”, Ethiopia will be plunged into civil war just like Rwanda. Without the “EPDRF” there will be ethnic fragmentation, conflict and warfare just like South Sudan. Without the “EPDRF”,  the “evil” “Amharas” will take over power. Without the “EPDRF”, the “Oromos” will take over power and punish the “Amharas”. Without the “EPDRF”, the“Tigrayans” will face persecution by “Amharas” and “Oromos”. The ethnically diverse people of Ethiopia will be forced out of their homes,  lose their lands and be  deprived of their right to speak in their languages.  Without the “EPDRF”, the infamous “Derg” will rear its ugly head. Without the EPDRF, the “Muslims” will  impose Islamic law in Ethiopia. Without the EPDRF, “Muslims” and “Christians” will persecute each other just like in the Central African Republic. Without the EPDRF, Islamist terrorism will wreak havoc in Ethiopia just like Boko Haram in Nigeria. Without the “EPDRF”, all of the rich people who got rich through corruption and theft will lose their wealth and go to jail or into exile. Without the “EPDRF”, the economy will collapse and Ethiopia will no longer enjoy the (imaginary) 11-15 percent annual economic growth. Without the EPDRF, there will be no development in Ethiopia. Without the “EPDRF”, the sky will fall and the stars come crashing down on Ethiopia! Without the “EPDRF”, there will be no Ethiopia.

Simply stated, the “EPDRF’s” winning strategy is good old fear and loathing. If they can manage to get “Amharas” to fear and dread an “Oromo takeover” of power, they get to win and stay in power. If they can get “Oromos” to hate “Amharas”, they get to win and stay in power. If they can keep  “Oromos” preoccupied by historical grievances and overlook the massacres of dozens of innocent university students, they get to win and stay in power. If they can frighten the smaller ethnic groups into believing the world will close on them without the “EPDRF”, they get to win and stay in power. If they can get “Christians” and “Muslims” to fear, loathe and distrust each other, they get to win and stay in power. If they can scare their rich supporters into believing that without the “EPDRF” , they will certainly lose their riches and end up in exile or in jail, they get to win and stay in power. If the “EPDRF” can get their loaners and donors to believe (wink, wink) the sky will fall on Ethiopia and their national interests if they fall out of power, they get to win and stay in power. If the loaners and donors turn a blind eye, purse their lips and plug their ears, as they always have, to the daylight theft of elections in Ethiopia, they get to win and stay in power.

Asking whether the “EPDRF” will win the 2015 elections is like asking whether darkness will envelope the land after sunset. It will be a cakewalk for them. With Meles, the election mugging playwright and director gone, his pitiful stagehands are now in charge. “Prime Minister” Hailemariam Desalegn, the man warming the “prime minister’s” armchair for Teodros Adhanom, the malaria-researcher-turned-instant-foreign-minster until 2015, has declared on numerous occasions that he and his colleagues will be guided (blindly) by Meles’ vision in everything they do.  In 2010, Meles vision was to win the election by 100 percent. He missed it by four-tenths of one percent. Hailemariam & Co. now face a tremendous challenge. They owe it to Meles to win the 2015 “election” by at least 150 percent. It will be a crying shame if their victory margin falls below the golden threshold of 99.6 percent.

To win by at least 100 percent and make Meles proud, Hailemariam & Co. must handout a little bit more fertilizer to the peasants than they did in 2010. They must at least double the “productive safety net payments” to poor rural household to buy their votes. They need to hand out a lot more “microfinance” loans to hoodwink the youth and buy their loyalty and votes. They also need to provide boatloads of empty promises for handout of condos to urban residents.

Over the next 11 months, the “EPDRF” will busier than a mosquito at a nudist colony subtly, cleverly and gradually implementing its SHEEP to pit the various ethnic groups against each other and spend hundreds of millions of birr to buy votes. They will build on their past successes of divide and conquer/rule strategy. For a quarter of a century, they have succeeded in stoking the fires of ethnic antagonisms. They are stoking ethnic fires today by massacring innocent university students (a little over a week ago BBC reported the regime in Ethiopia massacred 47 university students in Ambo 80 miles west of the capital).  They have had great difficulty in stoking the fires of sectarianism between Christians and Muslims, but they will keep trying. They are great at dirty tricks. Their local bankrollers, namely their corruption-fed fat cat supporters who have a chokehold on the economy, will flock to them ready to offer support. After all, they share the same destiny with the SHEEP herders. Naturally, the loaners and donors will babble the usual lip service nonsense about fair and free elections and at a blink of an eye turn a blind eye to the misuse of their foreign aid and loans for partisan political purposes.

ss What about the opposition?

What opposition?! The regime operators have nothing but contempt for the opposition. I have often remarked that Meles and his crew believed that opposition leaders are their intellectual inferiors. As Susan Rice, Obama’s current National Security Advisor, observed,  Meles believed those who opposed him are all “fools and idiots”.  Meles made it clear in his public statements that he can outwit, outthink, outsmart, outplay, outfox and outmaneuver his opponents any day of the week. He could. Meles’ acolytes today believe in their master’s teachings and visions. They too believe the opposition is dysfunctional, shiftless and inconsequential, and will never be able to pose a real challenge to their power. They view their opposition as  a bunch of delinquent children who need constant supervision, discipline and punishment to keep them in line. Like children, they will offer some of them candy — jobs, cars, houses — and whatever else it takes to buy their silence, if not their support. Those they cannot buy, they will intimidate, jail, prosecute or place under continuous surveillance and harass relentlessly.

The fact of the matter is that the Ethiopian opposition inside the country and in the Diaspora is terribly fragmented. Some opposition leaders are more concerned about their own power position than the dangers faced by the nation. They are unwilling to make genuine commitments to a common platform, unite and oppose a formidable common adversary. The opposition lacks the resources to counter the unlimited financial resources of the “EPDRF”. Opposition journalists are jailed and harassed. Even young bloggers are jacked up on silly terrorism charges. There is no civil society. To eliminate any traces of organized urban opposition, the regime has uprooted urban neighborhoods in the name of development. If push comes to shove, Meles’ minions will execute their master’s master plan. Meles once told an American diplomat, “We will crush the opposition with all our might.” The  TPLF (sorry, I meant the “EPDRF”) will “win” the 2015 “election” by push or crush.

The BIG known unknowns, unknown unknowns?

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld sometimes liked to speak in conundrums (riddles). He said, “there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

It is a known known that Meles was the brains and the brawns in the “EPDRF” operation (he single-handedly created the “EPDRF”). We know he was not only the “commander-in-chief” but also “strategist-cum-tactician-cum-guru-in-chief”. It is known that the combined intellectual capacity of all of Meles’ minions will not approximate four-tenths of Meles’ intellectual candlepower.

It is a  known unknown that there is no one in the “EPDRF” today who could replace Meles. Hailemariam Desalegn, the ceremonial prime minster in Ethiopia, once declared that he will never be able to “fill Meles’ shoes”. He is right. No one in the “EPDRF” can! It is a known unknown who will indeed fill Meles’ role if not his shoes in 2015.  (I think I know that known unknown.) The known unknowns are those things simmering behind the curtains of power in a regime that is legendary for its absolute secrecy. It is an unknown unknown how much infighting there is or has been since Meles’ death among the various TPLF factions. Those who claim to know the unknown unknown say the only thing keeping the various factions in the TPLF together is pure economic interest. They say the  only thing that is keeping the infighting within TPLF from exploding openly is the unwritten code of honor among thieves. Thou shalt not war with another thief for there are no winners in a war among thieves. There is much known unknowns about the inner workings of the TPLF power core. Unfortunately, those who know the unknowns do not talk and those who talk do not know the unknowns.

What will the donors and loaners do in the 2015  election?

The donors and loaners will do nothing to help or ensure that the 2015 election will be free and fair. They could not care less. They want an election drama, not  free and fair elections. They have their own old script to follow. In June 2010, I wrote a commentary entitled, “Speaking Truth to Strangers.” It was about the “hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil” attitude of the loaners and donors towards Meles and his regime. “Zenawi has cultivated and foisted the ‘stability’ canard on the Western donors for years. He has tried to convince them that he is the glue that keeps the 80 million Ethiopians from exploding into ethnic warfare and civil war. The donors know it is all a grim fairy tale, but they go along with it.”

The facts speak for themselves. The US, Britain and the European Union have poured in tens of billions of dollars of aid to support his regime for nearly two decades while pontificating about democracy and human rights in Ethiopia endlessly. They took no action when Meles personally ordered the massacre of hundreds of unarmed demonstrators in 2005. They pursed their lips when he passed a so-called press law criminalizing free speech and the free press. They moaned and groaned a little when he passed so-called anti-terrorism and civic society laws that effectively banned civic organizations and suppressed dissent. They have taken absolutely no action against the Meles regime to show restraint despite a quarter century record of uninterrupted gross human rights violations and criminality. Incredibly, these forked-tongue shameless “diplocrites” (practitioners of human rights hypocrisy by diplomacy) have sought to escape moral culpability by dumping  the blame on the opposition. They say, “There is no viable alternative in the opposition.” They know full well that the opposition is subjected to daily threats, intimidation, arbitrary arrests and detentions and violence, yet they have mustered the brazen audacity to blame the victims of tyranny for being ‘not viable’.

Why there can never be free and fair elections in Ethiopia  under the present regime

One cannot squeeze blood from turnip. One cannot squeeze democracy from dictatorship. The transition from “bushcraft” to statecraft requires tectonic transformations. Democratic statecraft requires an appreciation, understanding and application of basic democratic principles such as the rule of law, separation of powers, checks and balances and constitutionalism in the governance process. The TPLF dictators have little experience with or practical understanding of such principles. They never had free elections in the bush. Upholding the rule of law is absurd to them because they believe themselves to be THE LAW. Their ultimate justification for clinging to power is that they have made “sacrifices in the bush”. They expect those who oppose them to go in to the bush and fight their way to power. They scoff at civil liberties and civil rights as Western luxuries because they never lived in a system where the powers of government are constitutionally subordinated to the rights of the individual. In short, it is wishful thinking to expect the kind of statecraft necessary for democratic governance from a gang of  hateful ignoramuses from the bush.  Goethe observed, “There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action.” Behold the overlords of Ethiopia today!

Sitting on a powder keg

The TPLF (“EPDRF”)  is sitting on a powder keg. Its leaders filled with hubris and arrogance are blinded to the fact that the ethnic fires they stoked will one day consume them. The hate, fear and loathing they have nurtured will one day turn against them. They believe they can go on forever clinging to power by pitting one ethnic group against another, one religion against another.    They may be able to fool all of the ethnic groups some of the time and some of the ethnic groups all of the time, but they can’t fool all of the ethnic groups all of the time.

The great African American author James Baldwin wrote, “Hatred, which could destroy so much, never failed to destroy the man who hated, and this was an immutable law.”

Let those in power in Ethiopia heed an old prophesy told in the lyrics of a song of African slaves from the harrowing days of slavery in America: “God gave Noah the Rainbow Sign: No more water. The fire next time!”

Vote Out Tyranny in Ethiopia 2015!

Victory Over Tyranny in Ethiopia in 2015!

Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam teaches political science at California State University, San Bernardino and is a practicing defense lawyer.

Previous commentaries by the author are available at:

http://open.salon.com/blog/almariam/

www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/

Amharic translations of recent commentaries by the author may be found at:

http://www.ecadforum.com/Amharic/archives/category/al-mariam-amharic http://ethioforum.org/?cat=24

 

Somaliland:Parents’ role in improving child-teacher Communication

0

school children

Teaching your child how to effectively communicate with teachers is an essential in today’s educational environment. While the school has a set curriculum that it follows to educate our child, We also have the responsibility of teaching our children certain things. Then, there are those lessons that should be mutual between our home as well as the school.  One of these lessons is that of communicating effectively. In order to ensure the success of our child, it is important that we know the basics when it comes to teaching our child how to effectively communicate with teachers.

 

First and foremost, our child needs to understand that the teacher that they have is an adult and should be respected as such.  It is good for us as Somaliland parents to remind them that it is important to be polite and courteous at all times, even if they are frustrated or even angry at themselves, someone else, or the teacher directly. By doing this, we are teaching our child to carefully guard their words and truly think about what they want to say before they say it. If  our Children fail to carefully consider their words that may put up a wall between them and their teachers, which can actually hinder successful communication between child and teacher.

 

When a child goes to school, always talk positive about teachers, and put a light on them that shows them in a positive way. Today, many parents actually create a fear in their children by talking about their own teachers that were mean, or by telling their child that if they do something that the teacher does not like that the teacher will actually beat them. All too often, as innocent as these statements may be, the child may actually begin to fear the teachers that work in the school that they attend. Naturally, this can be harmful to the communication process which is already bad according to our education institutions.

 

Please, as Somaliland parents we should let our child that the teachers they have are there to help them learn and grow in the skills and abilities that they have. Let’s make sure they know that their teacher cares about them and that as long as they follow the proper procedures for talking to their teacher, like raising their hand and/or setting up a meeting with their teacher, that the person will be completely willing to talk to them about anything. Teachers are there to answer questions and clarify the materials that are being taught, and are there to clear up complications that may be occurring in the school. By telling your child this, it is likely that they will see them as a valuable tool and communicate well with them.

 

After All of the above If We find that our child is still having problems communicating with their teacher, it may be best to step into the picture and discuss the problem openly with the teacher which is happens rarely according to our parents. These days, you can do this in several ways. Like a phone call.

It is important to know the steps for teaching our child to effectively communicate with their teachers. As we have already seen several steps that can be taken to accomplish this task. If we follow the steps that we have already mentioned in the above, our child and their teachers should be communicating well.

 

 

                                                          Thanks

 

 

Mohamoud   Dahir Omar

Education Analyst

Mobile: 0634423327

 

 

 

Somaliland:Human Rights Group Demands the immediate release of Haatuf journalists

0

HUMAN RIGHTS CENTER LOGO

Today, 11th May 2014, in a press conference, Human Rights Centre condemned the arrest of two Haatuf newspaper journalists, Yusuf Abdi Gabobe and Ahmed Ali Ege. Hargeisa Regional Court remanded yesterday the two journalists into the custody after it held the first hearing of the trial of the journalists. The Court denied the right of bail, says Ahmed Hussein Abdi, member of HRC, at press conference. He requested the immediate release of the journalists and demanded the government to uphold the judicial independence stipulated in the constitution. Ahmed stated that yesterday trial was not in conformity with the national laws and the international standards. HRC also held press conference yesterday on this matter.

The lawyers of the journalists told Human Rights Centre that the judge was partial and did not give equal opportunity to the parties. The Press Law shall be applied on this case, Ahmed says. The application of the outdated and general law on this case is contrary to article 130(5) of the Constitution. The article clearly states that the pre-constitution laws are only applicable if they do not conflict individual rights and fundamental freedoms enshrined in the constitution. The article further stipulates that after promulgation of new laws, the previous laws shall not remain in force. Human Rights Centre is concerned by the continuing sidelining of the Press Law and the criminalization of the press.

The Police shut down Haatuf newspaper and sister English paper, Somaliland Times in 7th April 2014. The authorities accused the paper number of allegations related to stories published by Haatuf.

In the World Press Freedom Day, 3rd May 2014, petition signed by 328 people consisting of human rights organizations, journalist’s organizations, lawyer’s organizations, civil society members and organizations, traditional elders, business community, professionals, academicians, members of the two houses of the parliament, the political parties and political association have requested the president to lift immediately the suspension of the four papers without condition. So far the president does not respond. 

 Human Rights Center requests the immediate release of the journalist.

 

 Contact

Human Rights Center

Hargeisa Somaliland

www.hrcsomaliland.org

Ms Mulaho Mohamed Ali

Email:mulmohamed@hotmail.com

Somaliland:Silanyo vs. Bihi; A Looming Political Earthquake

0

bihi showning A specimen of voters filling form

After almost three-and-a-half years of relentless attacks on his character, in both the print and electronic media, and several botched attempts by his political nemesis to throw him to the wolves, Musa Bihi finally crossed the Rubicon after he was unanimously elected as party leader for a five-year term at KULMIYE’s National Party Conference held in Hargeisa on Monday, 28th April 2014.

 

Despite the apparent flaws in the electoral process, the successful conclusion of the two-day Party Conference was nevertheless a huge sigh of relief for Bihi but few are still willing to join his cheerleading squad.

 

Bihi’s momento della verita has arrived, less than a week after he was elected as party leader, when in an interview with the BBC Somali Service on Friday, 2nd May 2014, he let the cat out of the back.

 

He made it unequivocally clear that he is not in a mood to warm the chairmanship seat for the next five years and officially announced on the spot that he would be running against president Silanyo for KULMIYE’s presidential nominee in the forthcoming 2015 presidential election.

 

Spending more than ten years of his political life in opposition, Bihi was under tremendous pressure since KULMIYE came to power a little over three-and-a-half years ago.  Needless to say, he was being constantly undermined throughout this period by non other than his own party colleagues who, for a variety of reasons, did not agree to what some analysts described as his rigid and inflexible military-style rule over the party, and sometimes unusually blunt language. Other KULMIYE plotters who have been bought-and-paid-for were also actively looking for ways to get rid of him lately.

 

The former colonel who waged war against black Africa’s mightiest army swapped his army uniform for a suit in 1991 after his armed rebel group, Somali National Movement, brought the curtain down on Barre’s twenty one years of iron-fist rule in Somalia.

 

Bihi worked his way up through the ranks of the party. Initially, he was Silanyo’s first choice for a running mate in 2010 presidential election but that idea was vigorously opposed by some KULMIYE party members.

 

A committee comprising nine members was assigned to work this out. The committee swiftly rejected to entertain the idea of Bihi’s candidacy for Vice-President since, they argued, that would alienate Somaliland’s periphery communities.

 

Others argued that since Dahir Rayale, who hailed from the periphery communities, was elected as president and ruled Somaliland for eight consecutive years, there was nothing that would bar Musa or any other candidate from any Somaliland clan, for that matter, from becoming a Vice-President since the transitional Borama Charter [Clan-based system] that legally allocated this post to the periphery communities was replaced by a political system committed to the bedrock principle of “One Man, One Vote”. Musa was told nevertheless, that the post of Vice-President belongs to the periphery communities.

 

In the final analysis, Bihi gracefully bowed out of the race but only after ruffling so many feathers in the process.  At this point, a secret pact was struck between Bihi and Silanyo in which Bihi will get the party chairmanship post if Silanyo wins the 2010 presidential election.

 

Silanyo won the presidency, but Bihi and the rest of the party’s top leadership never tasted KULMIYE’s sweet victory until now. In fact, as soon as Silanyo was sworn into office, Bihi and his colleagues were given a stark choice: Resign from your posts in the party or else you will not be offered any ministerial portfolios. They chose the latter and remained in the political wilderness to date.

 

To rub salt into their wounds, Silanyo embraced selected members from the defunct QARAN- a rival political party- and offered them, much against members of his party’s advice, the two most powerful cabinet portfolios of his government namely the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Interior. Members of Qaran hardly delivered any votes to KULMIYE. Later, both QARAN ministers fell out with the president and were subsequently sacked.

 

Keyse Hassan Egeh, the Secretary General of KULMIYE, and a close confidant of Musa Bihi, passed away shortly after KULMIYE won the presidential election. Resigned from his job in Sweden, Keyse spent more than three consecutive years away from his family, garnering grassroots support for KULMIYE. When he delivered the votes, he was thrown to the wolves. Abdirahman Abdulkadir, the Second-Deputy Chairman of KULMIYE, who broke his back while serving the party, was ignominiously kicked out of the party for good at the Conference held in Maansoor Hotel in Hargeisa in April, 2011. Bihi is the lone survivor of those battles and carries many scars with anger.

 

Not to be upstaged again, Bihi put his political career on the line this time and decided to lock horns with president Silanyo on the party’s nominee for president of Somaliland.

 

Knowing that the odds are heavily stacked against him in the forthcoming KULMIYE’s presidential nomination process,   Bihi, by all means, put up a brave face by simply declaring his intention to challenge a sitting president from his own party.

 

Bihi is obviously angry about many things but he knows quite well that it is an uphill battle to win against a sitting president with his hands firmly on all levers of power.

 

If Silanyo seeks another five-year term in office, which is highly likely, then he will deploy all available state resources at his disposal and Bihi will most likely be beaten. No one will, however, be surprised if Bihi sorely loses the party’s presidential nominee but what follows will make or break Musa Bihi’s political future. And the public will be watching very closely.

 

The question on every one’s mind is: will Bihi jump on Silanyo’s bandwagon if he loses the battle for the party’s presidential nomination or will he join the opposition camp and wreak havoc on Silanyo’s chances of winning another five-year term?

 

If he opts for the former, first he will disappoint many of his supporters who will never trust him again. Second, this will prove to his political enemies that he was never serious about his candidature in the first place and was simply using it as a bargaining chip. Third, if he clings on to his post and dances to Silanyo’s tune, it’s highly unlikely that he will be re-elected for a second-term to the chairmanship post come 2018 KULMIYE National Party Conference. If Musa goes down that road, his political future will be dead in the water.

 

If, however, he opts for the latter he will have a fighting chance but still he has to prove to Silanyo and the public at large that he is a formidable force to be reckoned with, and that he has the unqualified support of his constituency [Gabiley] behind him. If he is able to do so, he will completely break the already fractured Gabiley-Balligubadle-El-Afweyn alliance that propelled Silanyo into power. In that case, Silanyo will have to pause and do some hard thinking.

 

Now, the big question is: will Gabiley put its full weight behind Bihi? Only time will tell. There are no easy options for Bihi. He will have a tough task ahead of him for the next twelve months.

 

In the meantime, as Harold Wilson once said, ‘a week is a long time in politics’. And who knows which way the political wind will blow in a year’s time?

 

 

 

Jamal Madar

adammadar@yahoo.com