On February 27, 2025, a pivotal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed in Mogadishu between Somalia and Ethiopia, marking a significant milestone in the diplomatic and strategic relationship between the two neighboring countries. This agreement comes at a time when both nations are seeking to enhance their cooperation in various sectors, including trade, security, and military collaboration. This article aims to analyze the key components of the MOU, its implications for regional stability, and the challenges that lie ahead.
The key components of the MOU, namely, cover trade and economic cooperation, security and military cooperation, and political dialogue and diplomatic engagement. Here is how these three critical spokes in the wheel are addressed on paper.
One of the central tenets of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is the commitment to facilitate trade between Somalia and Ethiopia. The agreement outlines mechanisms for improving access to ports and enhancing infrastructure connectivity. As a landlocked nation, Ethiopia has long relied on its neighbors for maritime access, making Somali ports crucial for its economic ambitions. The MOU includes provisions for granting Ethiopia access to Somali ports, particularly those along the Indian Ocean, to streamline trade routes. It also promotes collaborative projects aimed at improving transport and logistics networks, which are essential for bolstering trade. Additionally, the MOU encourages private sector participation from both countries in various economic sectors, including agriculture, energy, and manufacturing.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) underscores the importance of security cooperation between the two nations, recognizing their interconnected destinies in fostering regional stability. It highlights several key aspects. Firstly, it promotes joint military exercises, where the Somali National Army (SNA) and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) engage in collaborative training and military drills to enhance their operational capabilities. Secondly, the MOU establishes a framework for counterterrorism efforts, focusing on sharing intelligence and coordinating actions against common threats, especially those posed by extremist groups that destabilize the region. Lastly, it emphasizes Ethiopia’s participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which aims to assist in stabilizing Somalia amidst ongoing conflicts.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) underscores the importance of ongoing political dialogue to address mutual concerns and foster trust between the two nations. It includes provisions for regular high-level meetings, and scheduling frequent engagements between the leadership of both countries to review progress and address emerging issues. Additionally, the MOU establishes crisis management protocols to handle any disputes that may arise from the implementation of the agreement, ensuring that mechanisms for conflict resolution are in place.
Implications for Regional Stability
The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signals a broader shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa. The MOU represents a commitment to strengthening bilateral relations that have historically been fraught with tension. By addressing key issues of trade and security, both nations can work towards a more stable and cooperative future. However, the alignment of Somalia with Ethiopia could provoke reactions from regional adversaries, particularly Eritrea and Egypt. Both countries have historically viewed Ethiopian expansionism with skepticism and may respond with diplomatic or economic pressure against Somalia. The MOU could thus alter the balance of power in the region, necessitating a recalibration of alliances. Furthermore, improved access to port facilities and enhanced infrastructure could stimulate economic growth in both Somalia and Ethiopia. For Ethiopia, this is particularly crucial as it seeks to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on Djibouti. Somalia, on the other hand, stands to benefit from increased trade activities, which could foster economic recovery and stability.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the optimistic outlook, several challenges could impede the successful implementation of the MOU.
To begin with, both governments may face internal opposition to their rapprochement. In Somalia, lingering skepticism about Ethiopian intentions could lead to public backlash, especially given historical grievances. In Ethiopia, concerns about national sovereignty and the implications of foreign military involvement may provoke dissent.
Secondly, the geopolitical environment remains volatile, with ongoing tensions between Ethiopia and its neighbors. Any escalation of conflict in the region could jeopardize the commitments made in the MOU and disrupt collaborative efforts.
Most importantly, translating the provisions of the MOU into actionable plans will require significant political will and logistical coordination. Both governments must prioritize the establishment of frameworks for monitoring progress and ensuring accountability.
Despite the MOU’s focus on trade, the road ahead is fraught with challenges for it to work that require careful navigation and strong leadership.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has long played a strategic game of political sparring with leaders in the Horn of Africa, from his fluctuating relations with Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki to his engagement with former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. His ability to maneuver between alliances and antagonisms often tests the political acumen of regional leaders. This latest rapprochement with Somalia may be yet another experiment in diplomatic gullibility, as leaders like Mohamud—blinded by their fixation on countering Somaliland’s aspirations—fall into the trap of petty rivalries at the expense of long-term national interests. Whether this deal stands the test of time or crumbles under shifting geopolitical winds remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Abiy Ahmed continues to play a calculated and unpredictable game in the Horn of Africa. Many see it as nothing beyond a Hassan Sheikh gambit to copy-paste Somaliland’s similar agreement with Abiy of January 2024 which shook the slumbering Mogadishu chief to the roots.
As the Horn of Africa continues to evolve, the implications of this agreement – for better or for worse – will extend beyond bilateral relations, influencing the broader geopolitical landscape in the region.
Find the full text of the MOU here
Source: Somtribune.net
