FILE – Former Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, pictured during an official meeting in Mogadishu. Khaire has recently voiced strong criticism of the Ankara Agreement, citing concerns over Somalia’s sovereignty.
Former Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire has condemned the recent Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, labelling it a grave threat to Somalia’s sovereignty. The deal, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, reaffirms Somalia’s territorial integrity but fails, Khaire argues, to address Ethiopia’s controversial maritime ambitions and its unilateral agreement with Somaliland.
The MoU, signed in January 2024, granted Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s Berbera Port and a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Widely condemned by Mogadishu, the MoU was described by Khaire as a “dormant volcano” threatening Somalia’s stability.
“It is deeply regrettable that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has entered into negotiations with Ethiopia without first demanding the annulment of this illegal deal,” Khaire said. “Engaging in talks with Ethiopia while it continues to uphold an agreement that threatens Somalia’s unity is a betrayal of our sovereignty.”
The Ankara Agreement, finalized on Wednesday, requires Ethiopia to negotiate maritime access directly with Somalia. While Mogadishu hailed the deal as a diplomatic win, Khaire and other critics argue that this omission undermines the agreement’s intent to strengthen Somalia’s sovereignty. Instead, they contend, it leaves room for Ethiopia to exploit ambiguities, jeopardizing Somalia’s territorial integrity and federal cohesion.
As a landlocked nation, Ethiopia has long sought alternative trade routes to reduce its reliance on Djibouti, which handles over 95% of its maritime trade. The MoU with Somaliland offered a solution, but the Ankara Agreement effectively nullified unilateral arrangements and forced Ethiopia to work through Somalia’s Federal Government.
Technical negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia are set to begin in February 2025, with both sides facing significant political and logistical challenges.
“The Federal Government must prioritize resolving internal conflicts and strengthening Somalia’s unity,” Khaire said. “Political compromises that undermine sovereignty cannot be tolerated.”
By Nassir Hussein Kahin, a Somali scholar specializing in international politics
The African Union (AU) Charter is often cited as a barrier to recognizing Somaliland’s independence, with its emphasis on territorial integrity as a guiding principle. Yet, Somaliland’s historical, political, and legal realities expose contradictions within this principle when applied to its unique case. Compounding this inconsistency is the AU’s failure to act on its own fact-finding mission’s 2005 recommendations, which concluded that Somaliland meets the criteria for recognition.
Somaliland’s situation cannot be classified as secession because it was a sovereign entity before its voluntary union with Somalia in 1960. Gaining independence from Britain on June 26, 1960, Somaliland was internationally recognized as a separate state with defined borders. Its decision to merge with Somalia on July 1, 1960, was a political arrangement, not the result of colonial boundary adjustments. This union was never formalized through a binding treaty and dissolved in 1991 after decades of marginalization and oppression. By reclaiming its sovereignty, Somaliland reverted to its original borders, adhering to the very principle of territorial integrity the AU claims to uphold.
The AU’s stance becomes even more contradictory when considering its own fact-finding mission to Somaliland in 2005. The mission concluded that Somaliland satisfied the legal and political requirements for statehood, recommending recognition. However, nearly two decades later, the AU has taken no steps to act on these findings, undermining its credibility as a proponent of African self-determination and stability.
Somalia’s claims over Somaliland’s Red Sea coastline further distort the historical reality. These claims rest on a narrative that Somaliland is a secessionist region of Somalia, an assertion that disregards Somaliland’s separate colonial history and its recognized independence prior to the union. Somalia’s insistence on this point is part of a broader effort to create a false narrative of Somali unity and sovereignty—concepts rendered obsolete by decades of fragmentation and conflict.
Since the collapse of its central government in 1991, Somalia has been under United Nations trusteeship, surviving on international aid and the support of African Union forces. Confined largely to Mogadishu and its immediate vicinity, Somalia’s sovereignty is, at best, symbolic. Its accusations of foreign interference, particularly against Ethiopia, contrast sharply with its reliance on Ethiopian troops and other African forces to maintain order. At the same time, Somalia has entered into defense agreements with nations like Egypt, Eritrea, and Turkiya, which are more interested in curbing Ethiopia’s regional influence than promoting stability. These actions have destabilized the region, creating tensions that threaten to engulf the Horn of Africa in further conflict.
In stark contrast, Somaliland has built a functioning state with all the hallmarks of sovereignty: its own flag, police, army, currency, and passport. It engages diplomatically, hosting offices from countries like Ethiopia and signing international commercial and military agreements, including partnerships with the UAE and a recent Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia. Unlike Somalia, Somaliland has demonstrated its ability to govern, maintain peace, and foster democratic principles.
Somaliland’s political maturity is evident in its democratic elections, which have been lauded by international observers for their fairness and transparency. Opposition victories in both presidential and parliamentary elections have led to peaceful transfers of power, a rarity in a region where despots often cling to power. These achievements align Somaliland more closely with established democracies than many recognized states in Africa.
The African Union’s contradictions in handling Somaliland’s case go beyond ignoring its fact-finding mission. Precedents such as Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and South Sudan’s secession from Sudan in 2011 show that the AU has supported the redefinition of borders when justified by historical and political realities. Somaliland’s case, grounded in legal precedent, historical legitimacy, and its proven capacity for governance, is equally compelling.
As in the case of Senegambia, officially the Senegambia Confederation or Confederation of Senegambia, was a loose confederation in the late 20th century between the West African countries of Senegal and its neighbour The Gambia, which is almost completely surrounded by Senegal. The confederation was founded on 1 February 1982 following an agreement between the two countries signed on 12 December 1981. It was intended to promote cooperation between the two countries, but was dissolved by Senegal on 30 September 1989 after The Gambia refused to move closer toward union.
Somaliland’s achievements, from maintaining peace and stability to contributing to regional security efforts, make it a model for governance in the Horn of Africa. Its recognition would align with the AU’s principles of promoting peace, human rights, and self-determination. Conversely, Somalia’s fixation on a false narrative of Somali unity serves only to distract from its inability to govern or address its internal challenges.
The time has come for the AU and the international community to rectify these contradictions, honor Somaliland’s accomplishments, and grant it the recognition it rightfully deserves. Doing so would not only reinforce the principles of justice and self-determination but also promote stability and progress in a volatile region.
US President-elect Donald Trump has displayed behaviour that will resonate with autocrats in Africa. William Philpott/Reuters
“The US government will only do what Somalians in the US tell them to do”
This is an interesting development. One that will infuriate the nation of Somalia. But Somalia now has its Islamist tentacles deep in our political system. Or at least it thought that it did.
Somaliland, a self-governing region within Somalia, will be much closer to being recognized by the United States as the world’s newest country when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
Support for the region has grown strong among Republican US-Africa policy leaders on Capitol Hill, right-leaning Washington DC think tanks, and likely Africa advisors of Trump’s incoming White House. Many of these people told Semafor Africa they would encourage Trump to recognize Somaliland “even if it wasn’t on Day One.”
Recognizing Somaliland could enable US intelligence to set up long term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in a volatile region as well as keep an eye on Chinese activity. China already has a permanent military base in neighboring Djibouti. It should allow the US to better monitor Houthi activity in Yemen.
While most people think Rep. Ilhan Omar’s big priority was hating Israel and Jews (which she certainly does), it was about empowering Somalia and stopping recognition of Somaliland.
You may remember this Rep. Ilhan Omar rant from earlier this year that laid bare her agendas.
Some of the translated quotes have her asserting Somalia’s supremacy over US foreign policy in response to Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland.
“We as Somalians,” the translation describes, are an “organized society”, “people of one blood”, “brothers and sisters”, “people who know they are Somalians first, Muslims second.”
“The US government will only do what Somalians in the US tell them to do,” the translation states. “They will do what we want and nothing else. They must follow our orders.”
“We Somalians must have that confidence in ourselves that we call for the shots in the US… the US is a country where one of your daughters is in congress to represent your interest for as long as I am in the US Congress, Somalia will never be in danger, in waters will not be stolen by Ethiopia… the US would not dare to support anyone against Somalia.”
“Sleep in comfort knowing I am here to protect the interests of Somalia from inside the US system,” she says.
(Omar claimed the speech was mistranslated. I don’t know the language well enough to know, but this wouldn’t be an issue if she actually delivered political speeches in English as if she were an American elected official.)
Here’s another speech, via Alpha News, in which Omar stands smiling while former Somali Prime Minister Hassan Khaire states, according to the translation, that “the interest of Ilhan are not Ilhans, it’s not the interest of Minnesota, nor is it the interest of the American people, the interest of Ilhan is that of the Somalian people and Somalia.”
“The success of Ilhan is the success of Somalia.” He then urges Somalis everywhere on the planet to “support and give money to Ilhan’s campaign”
Looks like that money was wasted. If Trump recognizes Somaliland, Omar’s efforts to maintain the interests of the Somali regime will have failed.
I was born in Hargeysa, the capital of Somaliland, so watching the inauguration alongside countless dignitaries was an emotional moment, but also a historic one. Today, as President Muse Bihi hands over the baton, he leaves behind a country on the verge of recognition. Bihi, who was part of the movement that liberated Somaliland from dictatorship just over thirty years ago, had earlier this year signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia, in which Ethiopia agreed to recognize Somaliland in exchange for access to the Red Sea.
This agreement has caused considerable controversy among those who have an interest in Somalia. They see the recognition of Somaliland as them losing control over the region, but with the election of President Trump that might all soon change anyway, because Trump and his team have no interest in maintaining the proxy scheme that is the “One Somalia” policy.
The One Somalia policy is a principle that emphasizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Somalia as a single, unified state. It opposes any form of division or secession within Somalia. In reality, this policy is only referenced in discussions about Somaliland, which as we know declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has, unlike Somalia, been a functioning democracy since. The truth is that the aim of the One Somalia policy, and why I called it a proxy scheme, is really to funnel money into a black hole that is the Somalia mission. Billions have been wasted and very little has been done for the people of Somalia let alone Somaliland.
This wastage is one of the reasons why Trump and his administration will move away from the policy. And the Republicans, unlike like Democrats, understand that in order to truly compete with China they need stronger African countries like Somaliland on their side. With a young and highly educated population, Somaliland is an asset to America, not just in its war on terror but also its vision be truly be the top dog again.
So to many of those who thought the move towards recognition of Somaliland would tamper down with a new administration that won’t be the case. This time last month Somalilanders might have been on different political sides but today they are behind their president and reunited on the vision for recognition. That’s a recognition which now might not come from their neighbour Ethiopia but the global superpower whose new leader can’t and won’t pushed around by Turkey and others who want to keep the corrupt pipeline of Somalia open.
Please don’t get me wrong, I am not anti-Somalia, I wish Somalia well and always have. And in reality letting go of the idea that Somaliland ever being part of Somalia is good for them as well. It will allow them to focus on their needs and build something for the countless generations who have known nothing but war and famine. But sadly the men who lead Somalia are not interested in process and instead are in Turkey holding talks which they think will stop Ethiopia from moving forward with Somaliland.
This meeting is not just pointless it is embarrassing. Turkey is using Somalia in an attempt to be relevant in Africa with very little to give back to them. And because the West has been focused in other places it means that Turkey has started to think of itself as a superpower these but has very little to show for it, its global influence is negligible and regionally its in the middle of countless countries who are all at each others necks. So as we head towards the January 20th and the inauguration of Trump and a new administration in the State Department keep an eye out for Somaliland as it will again be the name on everyone’s lips. But this time the words will be coming from people who actually have the power to fulfill the dreams of Somalilanders at home and in the diaspora.
The Somaliland Advocacy And Development Foundation has condemned the international community that Somaliland is a failed country.
Hargeysa (Dawan)-Somaliland Advocacy and Development Foundation (SADFO) has called on the international community to know the republic of Somaliland which they said it has fulfilled all the requirements of the nation.
SADFO, an organization for the development of human rights, democratic administration, and sustainable development of Somaliland, has released a press release and called on the international community to give the people of Somaliland the right to recognize the government of Somaliland.
This SADFO organization, which is united with Somali citizens who are knowledgeable, have announced their press release on the International Human Rights Day, which will be celebrated in many countries in the world on 10th December.
The essence of this visit touches on Somaliland’s right of recognition and nationality of all individuals, regardless of birth, ethnicity, or originality, and they pointed that Somaliland independence is not a dream, but a reality in the hearts of Somaliland people since 18th May 1991.
And the announcement is like this: “A declaration about the right of Somaliland of identity and nationalism for all individuals, regardless of birth, ethnicity or origin.”
This year we are observing the situation of human rights in Somaliland, a region that has been abused for more than 30 years the basic rights and the recognition it deserves. The decision of the referendum of the Somaliland civilians in 2000 to return their freedom that was denied on 26 June 1960 is a permanent one that cannot be reversed.
The independence of Somaliland is not a dream but a reality in the hearts of Somaliland people since 18 May 1991. Somaliland people have chosen where they are going, not those who turn their backs on everything they go against. Not only Somaliland deserves recognition but also deserves the international Nobel Peace Prize, for the achievements it has achieved in peace, reconciliation and good governance.
The Somaliland people elected a democratic system 33 years ago, after 31 years of failing to unite with the former Somalis of Italy. Although Somaliland was struggling to have a peaceful and democratic government, the international community including the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU), failed to recognize its governance.
Diid ma dani has increased human rights violations against Somaliland people, who are still seeking recognition and rights of all nations.
If I say a little bit it is double, injustice and discrimination that Somaliland people have for Somalia. According to the international law, Somaliland people have decided their future and returned their freedom they refused 64 years ago and they have rights.
Without recognition Somaliland won’t get the much needed international development funds and investment, injustice and international custody is equal to international apartheid which is held to Somaliland people.
Action should be taken:
We are calling on the international community, UN and AU to take a clear step that will recognize Somaliland as an independent country. There is no covenant and international law that oppresses the right of Somaliland to get recognition. Truly, the recognition enables Somaliland to fully participate in international discussions, to ensure that its citizens can live up to their human rights and take part in the stability of the region.
Why Somaliland deserves recognition:
Historical news: Somaliland has declared its independence after 1991 after a civil war, with the stable democratic government which is different from the violence that is going on in the region.
Democracy’s solidarity: Somaliland has held many democratic elections, which shows how committed it is to the democratic principles and the practice of the law. Last month 13th November there was a peaceful election in Somaliland where the people of Somaliland elected the 6th president of Somaliland Mr. Dr. Cabdiraxmaan Maxamed Cabdilaahi who was the candidate of Waddani party who is the biggest opposition party. The president in charge Mr. Muuse Biixi Abdi has honoured the failures and the inauguration of the president will be held on Thursday 12th of December.
Peace and stability: The recognition of Somaliland will not only ensure the rights of its people but also take part in the peace and stability of East Africa.
Debate for Human Rights: Somaliland has shown how determined it is about human rights, with mostly an example of governance and civil freedom in the regions where the conflicts are.
The end of the day:\n
On this International Human Rights Day, we suggest the international community to respect the human rights of everyone including Somaliland. We call for Somaliland to be recognized as an independent country to ensure that its citizens get their rights and freedoms fully.
The time for action is now; let’s stand together to protect the human rights of all humans. Somaliland’s values should remind the freedom-loving countries to respect and value the democracy and equality they have struggled for for decades. The people of Somaliland deserve nothing less than peace and unity.
This press release is signed by the chairman of Somaliland Advocacy and Development Foundation Prof. Iid Ali Ahmed who is the chairman and also the general secretary of the same organization Dr. Abdi Abdillahi Hassan (Mataan).
Prof Eid Ali Ahmed
Chairperson
Somaliland Advocacy and Development Foundation (SADFO)
Somaliland reinforced its reputation as one of the Horn of Africa’s stronger democracies by staging a successful presidential election and ushering in a peaceful transfer of power. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood explains the challenges facing the new administration
What happened?
Somaliland held its long-awaited presidential election in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent. The vote and its aftermath underlined Somaliland’s standing as a consolidating democracy with a reputation for political stability while the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome in the Horn of Africa, where such handovers are a rare occurrence. That said, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth, due to rising internal tensions and an unresolved conflict in the east. The harassment of government critics and the concentration of political power in the hands of a single clan also fuel concerns as to the degree of openness in Somaliland’s political system.
Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991. Over the last three decades it has developed many of the trappings of a state, including its own currency, security forces and civilian administration in the capital, Hargeisa. Even so, Mogadishu rejects Somaliland’s independence and no country has recognised it. At the same time, its reputation for orderly polls and relatively consensual politics has come under strain recently, and disputes among politicians caused a two-year delay of the presidential vote.
In the end, Somaliland’s institutions and political establishment largely withstood the stress test. The results saw Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro”, leader of the Waddani party, secure the presidency with 64 per cent of the vote, defeating incumbent Muse Bihi of the Kulmiye party. Approximately 53 per cent of registered voters turned out – lower than the previous presidential election in 2017, when 64 per cent of those registered voted. This was partly because polls did not take place in most of conflict-hit Sool and parts of Sanaag, both of which lie in the east.
What are the main political divides in Somaliland?
Voters largely cast their ballots along clan lines, revealing the continuing dominance of these loyalties in Somaliland while also raising doubts as to the diversity and fairness of political representation.
Politics in Somaliland is dominated by members of the Isaaq clan family. A number of clans exist within the Isaaq, but three main ones – the Garhajis, Haber Jeclo and Haber Awal – have the greatest political prominence. Other, non-Isaaq clans reside in Somaliland’s western and eastern regions. In the western region of Awdal, members of the Dir clan family have long complained of marginalisation by the Isaaq. In the east, members of the Darod clan family, comprising Dhulbahante and Warsengeli clans, have mostly rejected inclusion in Somaliland, favouring instead a closer relationship with Mogadishu or neighbouring Puntland, a semi-autonomous state in northern Somalia with which they share close clan ties. These frictions were at the heart of the conflict that erupted between the Somaliland administration and the Dhulbahante in Sool in 2023 (for more on this, see below).
The past two Somaliland presidents … were swept to victory by a Haber Awal-Haber Jeclo clan alliance, under the Kulmiye party.
The past two Somaliland presidents – Bihi and his predecessor Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud, or “Silanyo” – were swept to victory by a Haber Awal-Haber Jeclo clan alliance, under the Kulmiye party. This fractured in 2024, with many Haber Jeclo turning against the incumbent. Instead, they voted for Waddani and its candidate Cirro, complaining that Bihi favoured his Haber Awal clan when in power. Prominent members of the Haber Jeclo clan also argued they had suffered most from the conflict in Sool which erupted during Bihi’s presidency, given that their homelands are on the front lines and many prisoners of war captured by Dhulbahante militias hail from their clan.
Alongside the presidential polls, Somaliland’s political organisations also contested elections to determine which of them would be permitted to compete as parties in future polls, with Somaliland’s political system licensing only three parties for up to ten years each. This system, in which political associations that want to become parties are subjected to a popular vote, is designed to avoid the proliferation of parties representing specific clans. Kulmiye and Waddani retained their official standing for the third and second time respectively. They are joined by a new party, Kaah, led by veteran politician Mohamoud Hashi Abdi, previously a member of Kulmiye. All three of these parties are headed by leaders from the Haber Jeclo – a first in Somaliland politics.
What were the challenges leading up to the polls?
The last few years have been difficult for Somaliland, sullying its reputation as a relative beacon of stability and democratic progress in the Horn of Africa.
First, presidential and local council elections had been delayed for several years due to domestic political tensions. When the licenses for Somaliland’s three permitted parties expired in late 2022, there was also little clarity on how or when the next slate of parties would be chosen. Presidential polls were due in November 2022, but confusion over the elections for licensed parties delayed the timetable: the government insisted on holding the party polls before the presidential contest, while the opposition argued the reverse should be the case. A compromise was hammered out in August 2023, paving the way for a joint presidential and party election in November 2024 after a two-year delay. The agreement came after violent clashes between government forces and protesters in major cities in August 2022 as well as a short-lived clan-based rebellion near the town of Burco, the region’s second-largest city, in mid-2023.
Secondly, the conflict in Sool between the Somaliland government and Dhulbahante clan militias dented Somaliland’s reputation for internal stability. Members of Somaliland’s Isaaq clan led the agitation for independence from Somalia following years of insurgency against the country’s strongman ruler Siad Barre, who held power in Mogadishu from 1969 to 1991. But the majority of Sool’s population are Dhulbahante, a community that belongs to a non-Isaaq family, the Darod. The desire for independence is not shared by all communities in the territory claimed by Somaliland, and the outbreak of violence demonstrated this. In early 2023, Dhulbahante elders and elites formed the Sool, Sanaag and Cayn-Khatumo (SSC-K) administration in Sool region, representing the clan, along with Fiqishine and Madiban clans in the area. The administration led the campaign to expel Somaliland forces in August 2023, and has since declared itself part of Somalia rather than Somaliland.
The immediate inception of the conflict in Sool can be traced to the assassination of a Dhulbahante opposition member in Las Anod, the region’s administrative capital, in December 2022. Protesters gathered in the town after the assassination, complaining that the Somaliland authorities had not made enough effort to stop the repeated killings of civic leaders. Police moved in to disperse the demonstrators, using excessive force. A full-fledged insurgency ensued. The Somaliland military and Dhulbahante clan militias, backed up by other related clans, fought a fierce war between February and August 2023 in which more than 150,000 civilians were displaced, many of them fleeing to Ethiopia. Somaliland forces fell back to the town of Oog in August 2023, where they remain. Fighting has not restarted since, although troops remain deployed on the front lines. Coupled with the lack of engagement between Sool, Sanaag and Cayn-Khatumo and the Somaliland government, the risk of the conflict reigniting remains.
Outgoing President Bihi’s moves to achieve the first-ever foreign recognition of Somaliland helped shape the outcome of the election.
Thirdly, outgoing President Bihi’s moves to achieve the first-ever foreign recognition of Somaliland also helped shape the outcome of the election. In January 2024, he hastily signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed which reportedly stated that Ethiopia could lease land on the Somaliland coast to build a naval base, in exchange for Addis Ababa providing official recognition of the administration as a sovereign state. The agreement sparked a regional uproar: Somalia condemned it as a violation of its sovereignty and subsequently demanded that all Ethiopian forces deployed in the country depart. (Ethiopia has troops there as part of the African Union mission and on a bilateral basis in support of Mogadishu’s fight against Al-Shabaab militants.)
The reactions within Somaliland were more equivocal. Some hailed it as a bold step towards securing independence. Others, however, criticised the lack of transparency, as well as the prospect of Ethiopia establishing a military installation on soil inhabited by ethnic Somalis, many of whom regard the country as a regional rival. Others viewed the agreement as no more than a ploy by Bihi to strengthen his flagging political prospects through an appeal to Somaliland nationalism.
With Ethiopia facing concerted diplomatic pushback, the deal has as of yet had no meaningful effect in practice. But it remains a source of contention – particularly in the Horn of Africa – and the mere existence of the memorandum of understanding contributed to a tense pre-electoral environment.
None of these controversies, however, managed to override the smooth conduct of elections, demonstrating Somaliland leaders’ commitment to the ballot box and sustaining the progress that the region has made toward developing democratic institutions. The National Electoral Commission and Supreme Court in particular showed leadership and independence during the electoral process. Bihi’s administration, meanwhile, successfully oversaw logistical challenges and refrained from manipulating the vote.
What should be the incoming administration’s domestic priorities?
The conclusion of the elections is an opportunity for Somaliland to move on from an electoral process that concluded peacefully while also exposing the extent of its divisions. Somaliland’s new leadership faces a clutch of major challenges. Its domestic politics are increasingly fractious; the relationship with the Dhulbahante clan (and the frozen conflict in Sool) remains tense; and the memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia continues to stir diplomatic bickering. Meanwhile, electoral democracy itself could face a new threat as the benefits of holding political power and the costs of losing it rise due to mounting foreign investment in Somaliland, giving top government officials far greater economic sway and access to financial resources. Important economic developments include the 2016 arrangement for the DP World logistics company, based in the United Arab Emirates, to manage and expand Somaliland’s main port of Berbera. This will allow Somaliland to profit from an important trade route linking states in the Horn of Africa to the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea shipping lanes.
But for now, successful polls, and a smooth transfer of power, will go some way to cooling domestic political tensions and redressing the reputational damage Somaliland suffered as a result of the delayed polls and conflict in Sool. Incoming President Cirro – a long-time opposition leader who was speaker of Somaliland’s lower house from 2005 to 2017 – should take the opportunity to prioritise dialogue and de-escalation, moving on from the aggressive and antagonistic approaches that have prevailed over the last few years in Somaliland.
To minimise post-election tensions, the incoming administration should demonstrate its commitment to governing on behalf of all Somalilanders, rather than just the communities that form its clan-based coalition. A first step would be to ensure that ministerial appointments in the new administration reflect a wide range of clans, not simply those that are most politically dominant, while also including more women’s voices to counter the marked gender bias in Somaliland’s political establishment. The new administration should also work to respect civil liberties and reverse recent efforts to curb these, a trend that has been manifested in the rising number of arrests of journalists and opposition politicians, including the detention of a member of parliament during the pre-electoral period.
Long overdue reforms to the political system should be another priority.
Long overdue reforms to the political system should be another priority. One important step would be to devise a new way to select representatives to the Guurti, the parliament’s upper house. Its current members were picked in the late 1990s and have long since exceeded their original six-year mandate. Many clan elders who were initially chosen have died and their successors, who mostly inherited the roles, often lack a similar level of public influence or interest in reaching compromise with political rivals. Not unlike the Guurti, mandate extensions are common across Somaliland – all branches of elected government (presidency, parliament, local councils) have previously seen terms of office extended. The new administration could beef up its democratic credentials by sticking to constitutionally-mandated term limits.
More broadly, the new administration should also seek ways to boost the inclusiveness of Somaliland’s political system. This will not be easy. Dialogue with communities that feel underrepresented, particularly non-Isaaq communities like the Gadabursi and Issa in the west and the Dhulbahante and Warsengeli in the east, is critically important. The Dhulbahante have effectively abandoned the Somaliland project, and prefer to see themselves as part of Somalia. Talks between both sides on the subject of releasing prisoners of war would be a sensible first step to avoid a resumption of conflict between the Dhulbahante and the Somaliland government, and could pave the way to more substantive discussions on their future relationship. In recent weeks, clan conflict has also flared in Erigabo, capital of Sanaag region, which had been a model of civic tranquillity despite the city’s diverse population. Dialogue sponsored by the new government could help calm tensions before they escalate further.
How should the government approach its foreign relations?
Two key issues are set to dominate Somaliland’s foreign relations: the status of the memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia, and Somaliland’s ties with Mogadishu. Relations between Somaliland and the Somali government had been improving prior to the signing of the memorandum. Toning down bellicose rhetoric deployed by both sides since the deal with Ethiopia was announced in January 2024 could help the two governments get back on the road to dialogue. There is a potential window of opportunity ahead of Somalia’s next elections in May 2026, in part because Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may want to demonstrate progress on the Somaliland issue before his mandate expires.
The memorandum of understanding will be tricky to navigate. If implemented, it would represent a breakthrough for foreign recognition of Somaliland, but could also spark a backlash in the region, particularly from Mogadishu. One approach could be for Somaliland and Ethiopia to focus on commercial aspects of the agreement – which are easier to put into effect immediately and less controversial. This would mean linking the revamped infrastructure around Berbera port to the Ethiopian market by improving the transport network connecting Ethiopia and Somaliland, while also finalising a bilateral trade agreement that had been under discussion prior to the memorandum of understanding. Somalia has noted it has no objection to Ethiopia and Somaliland deepening their commercial ties. At the same time, wider discussion between states in the Horn of Africa is needed to address the unresolved questions that the memorandum highlighted: namely, Ethiopia’s limited sea access and Somaliland’s legal status.
Another potential flashpoint surfaced in the aftermath of the U.S. election. Although not an official publication of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign, the Project 2025 conservative manifesto issued by some of his allies makes the case for official recognition of Somaliland. It argues that such a step would reward the entity for its relative stability, while also countering what the document’s authors describe as neighbouring Djibouti’s pro-Beijing orientation. (Djibouti hosts a major Chinese naval base located a stone’s throw away from a large U.S. base; its decision to grant China basing rights in 2016 irritated Washington.) On paper, Somaliland would welcome official recognition by a great power. But if this is done unilaterally and with no major diplomatic spadework in advance, it would also supercharge tensions between Somaliland and Somalia, particularly along the contested boundary with Puntland. It would likewise prompt furious objections from Mogadishu’s allies in the region, such as Djibouti and Eritrea, as well as their friends farther afield, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt – further dividing the wider region.
Navigating the issue of recognition will be an especially nettlesome challenge for Cirro. All parties – particularly the incoming U.S. administration – should avoid rushing into decisions that could create new fault-lines in the Horn of Africa. Washington should rather prioritise the resumption of dialogue between Mogadishu and Hargeisa, with regional backing, through sustained diplomacy and diplomatic pressure, in order to move toward a lasting solution.
Somaliland, a self-governing region within Somalia, will be much closer to being recognized by the United States as the world’s newest country when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
Support for the region has grown strong among Republican US-Africa policy leaders on Capitol Hill, right-leaning Washington DC think tanks, and likely Africa advisors of Trump’s incoming White House. Many of these people told Semafor Africa they would encourage Trump to recognize Somaliland “even if it wasn’t on Day One.”
Recognizing Somaliland could enable US intelligence to set up long term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in a volatile region as well as keep an eye on Chinese activity. China already has a permanent military base in neighboring Djibouti. It should allow the US to better monitor Houthi activity in Yemen.
Last month the territory held its sixth successful election since reclaiming independence from Somalia in 1991, bringing opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi to office as president. Republicans and other supporters have been encouraged by Somaliland’s democratic strides with a one-person, one-vote system even as conflict-ridden Somalia struggles to organize any elections.
Peter Pham, a former Africa envoy in Trump’s first term, said Somaliland’s democratic process had “demonstrated its attractiveness as a partner for the United States and other countries.”
Somalilanders who spoke with Semafor Africa from the capital Hargeisa soon after the Nov.13 election said they were confident Trump’s return to the White House will boost their aspirations for independence. “We have a golden opportunity to be closer if not for full recognition but much closer engagement with the US,” said Bashir Goth, who heads the Somaliland mission in Washington DC.
If Trump does recognize Somaliland it will likely be disruptive to the Horn of Africa region — which includes Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea — say US-Africa watchers, including some who support the idea.
“I support recognizing [Somaliland] because they’ve fundamentally proved they can run their own country and there’s no plausible scenario where they’d willingly return to Somalia,” said Joshua Merservey, an analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank. While Somalia’s leaders would likely be displeased with such a decision, Merservey said they hadn’t done enough for the US to not prioritize its own interests in the sub-region.
“Recognizing Somaliland would undoubtedly rattle the rump state of Somalia, further destabilize the Horn, and elicit a sharp rebuke from the African Union,” argues Ken Opalo,a political science professor at Georgetown University.
The support for recognizing Somaliland from Africa watchers on the US right is ostensibly about long-term relations with people in the territory. But it’s also about strategic military and shipping interests in the region, as well as countering China. In particular, the Bab-el Mandeb strait in the Gulf of Aden between Somaliland’s Berbera port, Djibouti and Yemen is a “critical shipping choke point” for moving goods and military wares in the sub-region.
Based on conversations I’ve had with likely advisors to Trump, Hargeisa shouldn’t expect an easy ride with the Trump White House. As we’ve noted previously, this is going to be a very transactional administration which will want to be sure they’re getting something in exchange for official support.
Ethiopia has already made a big bet on Somaliland by signing a controversial maritime agreement with the territory. Africa’s second most populous country is landlocked and very keen to have access to Somaliland’s Berbera port for trade and much more.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stance with Hargeisa has sparked diplomatic tensions with Somalia’s leaders in Mogadishu and even some mutterings of potential conflict. But if Trump was to recognize Somaliland, Abiy’s gamble could pay off.
Republicans are particularly critical of a so-called “One Somalia” policy which has been supported by the US State Department under President Joe Biden’s administration. The basic policy supports the idea that Somaliland is fully part of Somalia. American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin argues that even if the US isn’t about to recognize Somaliland the State Department should “revert to the policy of the past and treat it in a way that is parallel to its approach to Taiwan.”
MP Gavin Williamson of the British Parliament said that they are reactivating the party committees, APPG, in parliament that used to support the cause of the Republic of Somaliland.
According to the SOLNA News Agency, which quoted a post shared on social media by MP Gavin Williamson, he said that they are taking this step after free and fair elections were held in the Republic of Somaliland on November 13, 2024.
MP Gavin Williamson confirmed that the first issue they will work on at this time will be the recognition of the Republic of Somaliland.
Mr. Gavin Williamson, a former British Defense Secretary, has twice presented motions to the UK Parliament urging parliament to urge their government to recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a democratic country worthy of the UK taking the lead in recognizing Somaliland.
Kenyan entrepreneurs and technicians have found great opportunities in Somaliland’s trade and economy, according to a report by KTN television station Sophia Ali.
What should we focus on in terms of employment opportunities for Kenyans in Somaliland? Employment opportunities in Somaliland have surged, offering a New Horizon for those seeking work abroad. Now, around 3,000 Kenyans have ventured to Somaliland this year alone, joining over 10,000 others who have already found livelihoods across various sectors.
A report by the World Bank shows that the employment rate in Kenya has remained stable at 5.7% in 20 24 slightly higher than the 5.6% reported in 2023.
According to Abdirashid Duale CEO of the Dahabshiil Group, Kenyans in Somaliland are finding rewarding work experience in diverse sectors from banking, telecommunication, hospitality and even manufacturing he explained his positive experience working with Kenyans
A lot of our colleagues are from Kenya very professional people very hardworking, and highly educated and we want more of them to come” stated Duale.
As the job market in Kenya faces challenges in these opportunities are providing an alternative path to financial Independence and Career Development with an increasing number of Kenyans thriving in Somaliland the relationship between the two countries continue to strengthen offering hope for many looking for better Futures beyond their borders.
“One of those building tallest buildings in Hargeisa where all of our all our colleagues who building there are from Kenya as well as local people are also working with them but the majority are Kenyan colleagues building there our consultant who’s overseas and also from Kenya.” Added Daule.
Elders from North Eastern region have raised fears over an influx of refugees in the country caused by rising tensions in the Horn of Africa over the independence of Somaliland.
Over the past years, the contention on the independence of Somaliland has caused diplomatic incidents, especially between Somalia, Kenya, Egypt and Ethiopia.
Somaliland, which has not received any international recognition, declared its independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the then military government led by the late dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.
Currently, Somalia and Ethiopia are engaged in a diplomatic row over a deal signed in January this year, between Ethiopia and Somaliland for a 50-year lease of a Red Sea port to set up a naval base from Somaliland, in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Somalia views this deal as an assault on her sovereignty and territorial independence.
In Kenya, the elders from the North Eastern counties which border Somalia, have alleged that the Somalia’s military are already moving closer to the borders and worry that if the situation is not arrested, more refugees will flood into the country which is currently grappling with a high number of refugees.
The elders, who were speaking in Garissa, noted that the region cannot sustain more refugees especially with insecurity and resource-based conflicts caused by the presence of refugees.
Osman Ibrahim Abdi, an elder and the Dadaab sub county Peace Chairperson, said that as elders, they have witnessed insecurity over the past especially the Shifta wars and how the 1991 rebellion in Somalia affected those in the north eastern region.
“There is a saying in our community that, before something gets to you, report. We want to ask the President to intervene and bring the leaders together so that they resolve the issues before they escalate further to our country,” Abdi said.
“We do not have to see more people being displaced and become refugees due to issues that can be amicably resolved. The leaders of Somalia and Somaliland should prioritize peace and solve their issues,” he added.
Dekow Mohamed Duale, said that as the border communities, they are worried that if the tensions continue to rise, there can be a spillover to the Kenyan side where they will also be affected.
They now want the government of Kenya to negotiate peace deals between the countries and find an amicable solution for all the parties.
