The allure of sea access through Somalia might seem a tempting solution, but the historical, political, and geopolitical complexities involved suggest that this notion is fraught with numerous issues that outweigh the potential benefits.

Historical Context of Ethiopian-Somali Relations

The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia is steeped in a turbulent history of conflict and deep-seated mistrust. The Ogaden War (1977-1978), a fierce battle over the disputed Ogaden region, serves as a poignant reminder of the territorial and ethnic disputes that have plagued relations between the two countries for decades. The scars of this conflict run deep, influencing contemporary geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.

In 2006, Ethiopia’s military intervention in Somalia aimed to oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) under the pretext of fighting terrorism and insurgency. This intervention led to significant destruction and civilian casualties, exacerbating anti-Ethiopian sentiments in Somalia. The prolonged presence of Ethiopian troops and the resultant violence only deepened the historical animosity and suspicion towards Ethiopia.

Recent Developments and Violations

Ethiopia’s quest for sea access has taken a controversial turn with the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Somaliland, a region seeking independence from Somalia. This agreement, which includes provisions for sea access and a potential naval base, was made without the consent of the central government in Mogadishu. Such a move is a blatant violation of international laws and diplomatic norms.

Unsurprisingly, this MoU has sparked significant backlash within Somalia. President Hassan Sheekh Mohamud has had to mobilize regional and international support to counter the agreement, viewing it as a direct threat to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Public anger towards Ethiopia surged, reflecting deep-rooted fears of territorial encroachment and political manipulation.

Political Interference and Sovereignty Concerns

Ethiopia’s frequent meddling in Somali politics has further strained relations. Accusations of Ethiopia supporting various local leaders and militias to undermine Mogadishu’s central government are rife. This strategy appears aimed at creating a buffer zone of friendly administrations in Somali regions bordering Ethiopia. Such interference has not only destabilized Somalia but also hindered efforts to establish a strong, unified central government.

Granting Ethiopia sea access could exacerbate these issues, providing Ethiopia with greater leverage to interfere in Somali affairs. The historical context of territorial disputes and Ethiopia’s strategic interests in the region present a genuine risk of Ethiopia seeking to exert control over strategic areas, leading to disputes over jurisdiction and governance. This threat to sovereignty is a major point of contention and a source of public anger within Somalia.

Geopolitical Dynamics in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa is a region characterized by complex geopolitical dynamics and frequent shifts in alliances. Granting Ethiopia sea access could alter the regional balance of power, potentially provoking responses from neighboring countries such as Kenya, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Each of these nations has its own strategic interests and might perceive Ethiopia’s expanded access as a threat, leading to a realignment of regional alliances and increasing tensions.

Such geopolitical shifts could further destabilize the region, creating new conflicts and exacerbating existing ones. The intricate web of alliances and rivalries in the Horn of Africa means that any significant change in the status quo is likely to have far-reaching consequences.

Internal Political Stability

Internally, the proposal to grant Ethiopia sea access is likely to be contentious within Somalia. Various factions within the Somali political landscape might have differing views on this issue. Some might see it as an opportunity for economic development and regional integration, while others might view it as a threat to national sovereignty and security. The potential for internal discord could further destabilize Somalia’s already fragile political environment, exacerbating existing divisions and hindering efforts to achieve political stability.

Economic Considerations

While the economic benefits of granting Ethiopia commercial sea access through Somalia cannot be ignored, they must be carefully weighed against the risks. Improved trade routes could lead to increased economic activity, investment, and infrastructure development in both countries. For Somalia, the potential for ports development and increased trade could provide economic stimulus.

However, these benefits must be balanced against the potential risks to sovereignty, regional stability, and internal political harmony. The economic gains are not guaranteed to outweigh the significant political and security risks involved. Any economic benefits might be undermined by the potential for increased interference and instability.

Conclusion

Granting Ethiopia sea access through Somalia is a proposition fraught with significant challenges and risks. The historical mistrust between Ethiopia and Somalia, coupled with intricate regional dynamics and sovereignty concerns, make it a highly contentious proposition. While there are clear economic benefits to such an arrangement, the potential risks to Somalia’s sovereignty and internal political harmony are substantial.

Any move towards granting maritime access must be approached with careful consideration of all these factors to ensure a balanced and sustainable solution that does not compromise Somalia’s national interests and security. The stakes are high, and the consequences of missteps could reverberate across the Horn of Africa, further entrenching conflict and instability in a region that desperately needs peace and development.

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Abdullahi Hassan Mohamed (Samoow) 

 abdullahisamoow@gmail.com