By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin
The Horn of Africa is no stranger to power struggles, but one territory has quietly emerged as a linchpin for Western influence: Somaliland.
Recognizing this self-declared republic, which has defied regional instability to maintain peace and democratic governance, could be the game-changing move Washington and London need to counter rising threats from China, Russia, and regional powerhouses like Turkey.
But is it worth the risk? Critics warn that recognition could alienate key allies such as Egypt, Djibouti, and Somalia, and spark opposition from global heavyweights like China and Türkiye. Yet, the rewards of embracing Somaliland far outweigh the dangers, offering the West not only a strategic military foothold but also a chance to rewrite the region’s script.
For three decades, Somaliland has operated as an unrecognized state, fostering stability and democratic practices while Somalia grappled with terrorism and civil strife. Anchored by the Berbera Port—a critical gateway to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea—Somaliland is poised to become a logistical powerhouse.
The West’s investment in expanding Berbera’s capacity would not only loosen Djibouti’s grip on regional trade but also provide Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, with an alternative route to the sea. This move would strengthen Somaliland’s economy, integrate it into global markets, and deepen its ties with pro-Western states like the UAE, which already manages the port.
Coupled with renewable energy investments and special economic zones, Somaliland could evolve into a critical trade and energy corridor, rivalling China’s Belt and Road ambitions. This would cement Western influence in a region otherwise dominated by Beijing’s check-book .
As China expands its military base in Djibouti and establishes maritime routes in the Gulf of Aden, the U.S. and its allies face a pressing need for a counterweight. Somaliland’s Berbera Port offers the perfect answer. Hosting a naval base in Berbera would not only secure Western interests in the Horn of Africa but also safeguard critical shipping lanes connecting Europe to Asia.
This strategic hub would enable rapid response capabilities against piracy, terrorism, and regional conflicts, while reinforcing maritime security in one of the world’s most volatile waterways. For the UAE, already operating in the region, Somaliland’s recognition would create a reliable ally capable of bolstering their interests near Yemen and the Red Sea.
Detractors argue that recognition would alienate Egypt and Turkey, staunch allies in the fight against terrorism and key trade partners. But these concerns overlook the potential for diplomatic finesse. Egypt’s fears over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, for instance, could be mitigated by positioning Somaliland as a neutral buffer state, facilitating regional cooperation rather than division.
Turkey’s investments in Somalia, while significant, are unlikely to deter Western recognition if Somaliland proves its value as a stabilizing force. Moreover, Ankara’s ambitions in the region could be balanced by aligning Somaliland with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, offering Ankara limited but mutually beneficial engagements.
China, meanwhile, has tied itself to Somalia and Djibouti, leaving little room to maneuver should Somaliland gain international recognition. Beijing’s investments in the region are already being met with growing skepticism, particularly as African nations seek to reduce dependency on Chinese loans.
In an era where democracy faces mounting global challenges, Somaliland stands as a beacon of hope. Its free elections, peaceful power transitions, and emphasis on governance set it apart in a region marred by autocracy and conflict. Recognizing Somaliland would signal the West’s commitment to democratic values and provide a counterargument to critics who claim Western actions are solely driven by self-interest.
By legitimizing Somaliland’s achievements, the U.S. and UK could strengthen their moral authority and galvanize international support from other democracies. As the West struggles to rebuild its global reputation, this move could underscore its commitment to rewarding stability and governance over chaos and corruption.
Ultimately, the question isn’t whether Somaliland deserves recognition—it’s whether the West can afford not to recognize it. With its strategic location, untapped economic potential, and democratic credentials, Somaliland offers a rare opportunity to counter rivals, stabilize a volatile region, and secure critical trade and military pathways.
For Washington and London, the pathway is clear: embrace Somaliland not as a gamble, but as a calculated move to rewrite the geopolitical script. Opponents will object, but history rewards those who see beyond the immediate risks to seize the long-term rewards.
Will America rise to the occasion? The clock is ticking.
