Last weekend, the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Foreign Minister met in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and delivered a direct message from Al Sisi aimed at “strengthening and developing bilateral relations in all fields”
Egypt’s diplomatic activism in the Horn of Africa continues. After the military cooperation agreement signed with Somalia to send 10 Egyptian soldiers to Mogadishu, which infuriated neighboring Ethiopia, the government in Cairo is now considering a similar agreement with Eritrea, which would also include bilateral measures to protect shipping in the Red Sea. The Emirati newspaper “The National” reports this, underlining that at the same time Egypt is also discussing with Asmara a possible Egyptian mediation in the ten-year conflict between the Eritrean government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), protagonist of the war that ended two years ago that pitted it against the Ethiopian army. The talks between Egypt and Eritrea follow a surprise visit made last weekend to Asmara by the head of Egyptian intelligence Kamal Abbas, very close to the president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and accompanied by the Foreign Minister Badr AbdelattyThe two delegates met with the Eritrean President, Isaiah Afwerki, and according to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, they delivered a direct message from Al Sisi aimed at “strengthening and developing bilateral relations in all fields”.
The senior Egyptian officials, the statement continued, “also listened to President Afwerki’s views on the developments in the Red Sea regarding the importance of finding the right circumstances to restore normal maritime navigation and international trade through the Bab el Mandeb Strait,” which connects the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea. Together, the territories of Egypt and Eritrea cover about 5 kilometers of the Red Sea coastline, including the Egyptian coasts of the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, as well as 355 islands under Eritrean sovereignty. Egypt controls the northern areas of the Red Sea, including the Suez Canal that connects it to the Mediterranean, while Eritrea is located near the strategic Bab el Mandeb Strait. Sisi and Afwerki last met in February, when they met in Cairo. Three months earlier, they had met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
If confirmed, the military cooperation agreement with Eritrea would be the latest to be signed between Cairo and countries in the Horn of Africa, East Africa or the Nile Basin. These include Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan and, most recently, Somalia. Analysts have long suspected that such agreements were designed primarily to pressure Ethiopia to show flexibility in its dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the mega-project nearing completion on the Nile River that Cairo considers an existential threat to its water supply. This was particularly the agreement with Somalia, signed on 14 August during the visit to Cairo by the Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, exacerbating the already bitter tensions between Somalia and Egypt, on the one hand, and Ethiopia, on the other.
Under the agreement, a total of 10 Egyptian soldiers will be sent to Somalia: half of these (5) will be integrated into the African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) – which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on 1 January 2025 – while the other 5 will be deployed bilaterally. The Ethiopian response, announced with a fiery statement released the day after the arrival in Mogadishu of the first Egyptian soldiers who will be deployed in the regional states of Hirshabelle, Southwest and Galmudug, was not long in coming: it first came with the deployment of armored vehicles and hundreds of men on the border with Somalia, then with the seizure of several key airports in the Somali region of Ghedo, including Luq, Dolow and Bardere, in an attempt to prevent the possible air transport of Egyptian troops to the area. The airports are the only access points to the cities in the Gedo region, since the main roads are controlled by the jihadist group Al Shabaab.
Tensions with Ethiopia have had the effect of further bringing the positions of Somalia and Egypt closer, already significantly improving after the election of President Mohamud in May 2022. Long at loggerheads with Addis Ababa over the Gerd dam, Egypt has been a key player in Somalia’s security since early 2023, contributing to the training of Somali army recruits and the supply of weapons and ammunition and the care of wounded Somali soldiers in Egyptian military hospitals. Also last year, Mogadishu and Cairo began talks for closer strategic cooperation, and press rumors have been circulating for some time – so far unconfirmed – according to which Mogadishu is considering granting Egypt a military base in the center-south of the country.
In addition to the common Ethiopian threat, the thaw in relations between Cairo and Mogadishu’s historic ally Turkey has also brought Egypt and Somalia closer together. This thaw was confirmed by the recent visit to Ankara by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi (the first since 2014). A visit that clearly and unequivocally indicated the renewed closeness between the two countries after the years of frost experienced since 2013 due to divergent positions on political Islam, but also on regional geopolitical issues. In the years following 2013, specifically in 2021, the thaw between Qatar – the main point of reference for the Muslim Brotherhood – and the Gulf bloc formed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, together with Egypt, has in fact opened new opportunities for relations between Cairo and Ankara.
